- Despite the monumental challenges ahead, the mood in Syria is optimistic and hopeful, says International Crisis Group’s Nanar Hawach
- Reconstruction on a massive scale cannot happen until US sanctions on Syria are lifted, says Hawach
- ‘There is this declared commitment to re-establish the state apparatus to govern the population,’ says academic Samer Abboud
ISTANBUL
Two months after the dramatic fall of Bashar Assad’s regime, Syria stands at a definitive juncture. The country, ravaged by years of brutal conflict, now faces the daunting task of rebuilding itself politically, economically, and socially.
Assad fled to Russia on Dec. 8, 2024, effectively ending the Baath Party’s brutal rule of nearly six decades. His departure came after rebel forces, led by now Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, successfully toppled the regime.
Despite the end of Assad’s rule, Syria remains fragile. The scars of war are deep, and the path to stability is fraught with immense challenges, including economic devastation, political fragmentation, and the need for transitional justice.
As the transitional government navigates a labyrinth of challenges, experts emphasize that the coming months will be critical in determining the future course of Syria.
“Two months ago, they got control of a state that has a lot of challenges, and they have a lot to do,” said Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group, in an interview with Anadolu.
“The economy is kind of almost devastated ... services are almost nonexistent. There is a level of insecurity. There is destruction. There is displacement. There are refugees. Half of the population is outside ... It’s one of the most internationalized civil wars,” he added.
Hawach stressed the importance of closely observing how the interim government tackles these challenges, particularly in re-establishing governance structures and restoring basic services.
For academic Samer Abboud, another pressing issue is transitional justice – the process of addressing human rights violations and ensuring accountability for decades of crimes committed by the Assad regime.
“People have suffered tremendously over the last 13 years, over the last 50 years, and there needs to be some sort of process of healing and reconciliation,” he said.
Unifying a divided nation
In his first televised speech, President al-Sharaa outlined his vision for a unified and inclusive Syria, promising a “comprehensive transitional government that represents Syria’s diversity, including men, women, and youth, to rebuild the country’s institutions until free and fair elections can take place.”
Experts view this commitment as crucial in bringing together a fragmented nation. Hawach highlighted the administration’s efforts to integrate different factions into a unified national army.
“What they highly prioritize is merging factions, trying to create some kind of a unified army ... trying to get an agreement from different factions,” he explained.
Another key focus of the interim government is preserving state institutions.
Unlike transitions in other conflict-ridden nations where institutions collapsed entirely, the new administration is working to maintain existing structures while ensuring they function effectively, sending positive signals to the international community and regional actors, said Hawach.
Abboud, an author and academic at Villanova University in the US, pointed out that one of the government’s aims seems to be to create a national government.
“You do see an attempt to concentrate power in the state. Many Syrians have a commitment to the state, and state institutions are something that are distinct from a political regime, political party, or a political movement,” he said.
“There is this declared commitment to re-establish the state apparatus to govern the population.”
There is a set of policies flowing from Idlib to Damascus, he added, and “this seems to be the kind of declared public goal of the transition authorities – to kind of erase any vestige of fragmentation.”
The government’s commitment to governance is also evident in its push to restore basic services, including electricity.
Al-Sharaa’s recent statements on the issue, while acknowledging the challenges in a pragmatic manner, are also “a declaration of what the immediate goals are now – to establish the conditions for a functioning state,” Abboud emphasized.
Economic and infrastructure challenges
The war has left Syria’s economy in shambles. Years of conflict, international sanctions, and the destruction of key industries have pushed the country to the brink.
Hawach described the economic reality in stark terms: “When it comes to the economy, you have sanctions that are crippling the country. You don’t have infrastructure, you don’t have services, you don’t have businesses running properly.”
The Syrian economy is heavily reliant on informal markets, he said, with around 70% of economic activity taking place outside official channels.
Abboud underscored the difficulty in restoring access to the basics of life, such as food, electricity, and employment.
On the government’s pledge to increase public sector salaries by 400%, he said it remains unclear where the funding will come from.
“There isn’t a tax base in Syria. It doesn’t have the natural resource base to fund large-scale reconstruction. We don’t know how the infrastructure of Syria will be rebuilt,” he said.
“There is no money … This leaves the country vulnerable to external financial interventions that may focus on things like building malls and not on reconstructing the electricity grid, for example.”
Since taking over, Syrian transitional government officials, including al-Sharaa, have emphasized the importance of the country’s human capital and resources, terming it key for a positive recovery.
One of the biggest hurdles to Syria’s reconstruction, Hawach pointed out, is international sanctions, particularly those imposed by the US.
Unless sanctions are lifted, there will not be any large-scale reconstruction happening, he said.
However, Abboud expressed concerns about a potential over-reliance on the private sector, cautioning that it could lead to an imbalanced reconstruction process, while also warning of the persisting threat posed by armed factions across Syria, saying they could sabotage or disrupt recovery and reconstruction efforts.
International dynamics and hopes for future
Experts pointed out that Syria’s transitional government must also navigate external threats, including ongoing Israeli military incursions in the south.
“Israel’s attitude towards the new Syrian leadership is not a very friendly attitude. They see the new Syrian government as a potential threat, and they acted on it,” Hawach explained.
“Israel has decimated ... what they estimate to be like 70% of the future Syrian army’s arsenal … This will also affect the attitude in the US.”
Meanwhile, some European nations have called for the closure of Russian military bases in Syria, creating another diplomatic challenge.
However, the Syrian administration, including Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, has hinted that Moscow could be allowed to retain its bases.
“If they remove the Russian bases, they’re going to antagonize Russia,” said Hawach.
Despite these difficulties, the interim government is working to rebuild diplomatic ties, with al-Sharaa recently visiting Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
Abboud believes that while neighboring countries will establish diplomatic relations with Syria, financial assistance remains uncertain.
“We don’t see a flood of money and other forms of support,” he noted.
Despite the monumental challenges ahead, Hawach described the mood in the country as optimistic and hopeful.
“Despite the situation, right now at least, being economically not very good, people have hope. They know now that there’s a chance to improve things,” he said.
“The people got their homes back. They got their country back. You can see it in their faces.”
However, the situation remains precarious, particularly outside the capital, Damascus, where economic conditions are even worse, he added.
“They’re trying to stay patient and say it’s a transitional period, but the reality is they are starting to lack the means to sustain themselves.”
