Record displacement, fading protections: Refugees face a bleak future

• ‘We live in an age of war and impunity, and civilians are paying the heaviest price,’ says Danish Refugee Council’s Nirvana Shawky
• Funding cuts could leave 101.5 million people without assistance this year, while an estimated 6.7 million more people could be displaced over the next two years

GENEVA

As Eujin Byun of the UN refugee agency says: “No one wants to be a refugee.”

Yet today, more than 122 million people are displaced – fleeing wars they did not start and a climate crisis they did not cause, only to encounter closed borders, dwindling aid and a crumbling global commitment to their protection.

On World Refugee Day, latest data from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) confirms a grim reality: global displacement has doubled since 2015, reaching an all-time high.

“Behind those numbers are people who could be your mother, your child. This is not their fault,” UNHCR spokesperson Byun told Anadolu. “The world is a more difficult place for people to stay in their homes safely.”

The trend shows no sign of slowing. Over the next two years, an estimated 6.7 million more people will be displaced, according to an AI-powered model developed by the Danish Refugee Council and IBM.

Countries flagged for worsening displacement include Sudan, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Syria, Yemen, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Venezuela.

“We live in an age of war and impunity, and civilians are paying the heaviest price,” Nirvana Shawky of the Danish Refugee Council told Anadolu.

Funding collapse leaves millions without assistance

The surge in global displacement comes as political will and funding for refugees wane, putting even basic services like education and health care at risk, humanitarian groups warn.

At UNHCR, the gap between needs and resources has reached a critical point, according to Byun.

Without adequate support, the agency is forced to make “difficult” choices, she said – prioritizing survival at the expense of long-term support. As a result, millions of children may lose access to education and families could be left without health care.

In May, the Danish Refugee Council announced that it had lost its second-largest funding partner. As a result, it is shutting down operations in six countries, affecting services for 1.5 million displaced people. It will remain active in 28 countries.

In total, the organization estimates that global funding cuts will leave an estimated 101.5 million people without aid this year alone.

“This is more than a crisis,” said Shawky. “It’s a moral failure.”

That failure, she said, reflects not only donor fatigue but growing political hostility toward refugees. Across much of the Global North, asylum policies are hardening and rhetoric is becoming more extreme.

But the idea that Western nations are shouldering the burden or are overwhelmed with refugees is a “total myth,” she added.

Nearly 76% of the world’s forcibly displaced people are hosted by low- and middle-income countries – many grappling with their own humanitarian crises.

Chad, for instance, shelters 1.3 million refugees despite being among the world’s poorest countries, with nearly 40% of its population in need of aid. Its refugee response remains chronically underfunded.

Shawky emphasized that most refugees do not want to leave their homes and cultures – and do not aspire to reach Europe.

“The assumption that all displaced individuals aspire to reach the Global North lacks evidence. In fact, examples of freedom of movement in less wealthy and even crisis-affected regions demonstrate that most people prefer to remain closer to home if provided with safety and opportunity,” she said.

Desperate journeys, shrinking protections

Though many displaced people hope to remain close to home, worsening conditions and shrinking assistance are forcing some into dangerous journeys – including perilous sea crossings to Europe, where thousands die or go missing each year.

Byun said the burden of preventing such tragedies cannot fall solely on host or departure countries. “It requires a joint global effort,” she said.

She and others have warned of an alarming erosion of international protection norms, citing increasing cases of forced returns.

“Syria is not safe,” Shawky said, noting that governments including the UK, France, Germany and Denmark have paused asylum cases for Syrians.

At the same time, she added, up to 1.5 million Afghans risk being sent back to a country where half the population needs humanitarian aid to survive.

“We must undergo a humanitarian reset,” she added, urging a shift from reactive responses to forward-looking, preventive policies.

Both UNHCR and the Danish Refugee Council warned that international refugee protection is eroding. Pushbacks at borders, forced returns and restrictive migration deals are undermining the right to seek asylum – a pillar of international law.

“States have the right to manage their borders,” Shawky acknowledged. “But this cannot come at the expense of the right to seek asylum.”

Despite the mounting challenges, both organizations said the focus must return to people, not policies.

Byun, who has worked in crisis zones including South Sudan, said women and children often suffer the most. “When you see them, you wouldn’t think a refugee is a threat,” she said.

On this World Refugee Day, their call is not just for awareness, but for renewed commitment to protection, dignity and global solidarity.

“Refugees did not start the wars. They have contributed the least to climate change,” Shawky said. “Yet they carry the greatest burden.”

“As we mark this day, let’s affirm our unwavering dedication to those who have been forced to flee,” she added. “In the face of multiplying crises and diminishing aid, their capacity to endure and unite should remind us that, if they can persevere, so must we.”