Concerns over critical minerals threaten global supply chain

ANKARA

Supply concerns over critical minerals due to the rise of certain countries in the field pose a risk to the global supply chain amid the rapid shift to cleaner energy worldwide, according to a recent report.

Italian energy firm Eni’s World Energy Review 2025 report showed that minerals like cobalt, lithium, nickel, manganese, and graphite are fundamental for battery production and the widespread adoption of renewable energy.

Cobalt is highly concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the world’s 56.1% cobalt reserves lie, while 77.9% of graphite production happens in China, 76% in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and over 60% of nickel production in Indonesia.

Some 40% of the world’s rare earth reserves and 69% of the global production are in China, which positions the country as a global leader in the processing of critical minerals and the production of rare earth elements, according to the report.

The world’s critical mineral production rose an average of 5.5% year-on-year in 2024, most significantly in cobalt production, while manganese and nickel production fell and partially offset the global rise across all critical minerals.

Certain countries’ vast success in the field poses great risks to supply security and weakens market competition, leading to sharp rises in prices of many critical raw materials in recent years as the energy transition pushes up demand, thereby creating a strategic fragility, according to the report.

China’s critical mineral monopoly begets geopolitical dependency risk

Caner Zanbak, environmental coordinator at the Turkish Miners’ Association, told Anadolu that China has made significant progress in critical mineral mining and processing over the past two decades or so, as it became a key driver in green energy and the advanced technology supply chain.

China imposed export restrictions on certain green energy and advanced tech in 2020 and further strict restrictions on rare earth and production technologies in response to US tariffs.

“China’s restrictions create significant geopolitical dependency risks in energy transformation and advanced tech manufacturing in other major economies,” he said.

He noted that the large reserves of mineral ores other than cobalt, graphite, and nickel in certain countries turned them into a focal point for major global economies like the US, the EU, Japan, and South Korea, while export policies imposed by countries with such resources to ensure the production remains within borders, coupled with political instability, pose a great threat to critical mineral supply security.

“We will see major trade wars due to raw material supply risks in the next three to five years,” he said.

Zanbak stated that some countries have established strategic partnerships with each other to protect the security of the critical mineral supply.

“Developing countries like Türkiye need to accurately identify their manufacturing industries’ needs, develop raw material sources, and implement procurement strategies to reduce supply risks,” he said.

“Türkiye is rich in geological resources and mineral diversity, so it would be to its benefit to implement the necessary action plans currently being prepared more quickly,” he added.