Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a turning point in his political career after Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot was tasked with forming a government, amid concerns within his Likud party that he could lose power.
The political turning point could eventually leave Netanyahu, 77, back on the opposition benches in the Knesset, or even outside political life, as he continues to stand trial on corruption charges that could result in imprisonment if convicted.
Netanyahu still has political and legal options that could allow him to remain in power or eventually return to office, but his path appears more complicated this time because Eisenkot, 66, has several possible routes to forming a government.
Even if Eisenkot succeeds in establishing a government without Netanyahu, the Likud leader could return to lead the opposition, as he has done before, while seeking another path back to the premiership.
Any future comeback, however, would depend on political and legal developments, including a possible law restricting an indicted lawmaker from being tasked with forming a government and the outcome of Netanyahu’s corruption trial.
Netanyahu has intensified efforts to derail Eisenkot’s efforts to form a government by pressuring ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties not to join his coalition and warning against the formation of an administration involving or relying on Arab parties.
Under Israeli law, Eisenkot initially has 28 days to form a government, with President Isaac Herzog able to grant an extension of up to 14 days.
If Eisenkot fails, the process could pave the way for another lawmaker to receive the mandate, potentially including Netanyahu.
Netanyahu had sought Herzog’s mandate himself, but recommendations from Arab lawmakers tipped the balance in Eisenkot’s favor.
Herzog formally handed Eisenkot the mandate on Sunday evening, in a move that could end Netanyahu’s rule if the Yashar leader succeeds in forming a coalition and winning the Knesset’s confidence.
Israel’s newly elected parliament is due to begin its term Tuesday.
A day before Eisenkot received the mandate, Netanyahu appeared in a video calling for the formation of a unity government after previously advocating a broad right-wing government.
Netanyahu has headed a far-right government since late 2022, widely described as the most right-wing in Israel’s history.
- Fears inside Likud
Maariv political analyst Anna Barsky described the mood inside Netanyahu’s Likud party as one in which officials fear their leader could “lose everything,” while some party members are waiting for what they described as a “miracle.”
Netanyahu leads Likud, the largest party in the 120-seat Knesset with 27 seats, and is seeking to preserve alliances with his right-wing and ultra-Orthodox partners.
“Gadi Eisenkot received the mandate to form a government, and at the same time Netanyahu began efforts to obstruct the formation of the change government,” Barsky wrote Monday.
She said Netanyahu’s moves center on preventing the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party from joining an Eisenkot government, persuading opposition lawmakers to join him and exploring whether Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party could be brought back into the right-wing camp.
Barsky, however, said that doubts exist even among veteran Likud ministers and lawmakers over Netanyahu’s ability to prevent United Torah Judaism from joining Eisenkot if the rabbis who guide the party receive an offer meeting their demands.
“In private conversations, Likud officials admit that Netanyahu currently lacks any real political leverage that can guarantee that the ultra-Orthodox parties remain within the right-wing camp,” she wrote.
She quoted some Likud officials as saying: “All that remains for us is to wait for a miracle.”
According to Barsky, if Eisenkot offers United Torah Judaism an acceptable compromise on military conscription, it could become difficult for Netanyahu to prevent an agreement between the two sides.
- Contradictions
Even media voices sympathetic to Netanyahu acknowledge the difficulty of his political position while still seeing possibilities for obstructing Eisenkot’s efforts.
Efrat Brenner, a political analyst for the pro-Netanyahu right-wing Channel 14, said Netanyahu still holds important political cards despite Eisenkot’s attempts to bridge differences between ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties.
Brenner said that if Netanyahu succeeds in keeping United Torah Judaism and Shas from joining Eisenkot, the Yashar leader could fail to secure the parliamentary support needed for a stable government.
A stable parliamentary majority requires at least 61 lawmakers, but neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition holds that number alone.
Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition, while Arab parties secured 19.
“Even if United Torah Judaism returns to supporting him, his bloc would have only 53 Knesset members, meaning he would still need eight additional votes to reach the 61-seat majority,” Brenner said.
“Therefore, obstructing Eisenkot’s efforts does not necessarily guarantee Netanyahu’s success in forming the government himself,” she added.
Netanyahu could seek to deepen divisions among Eisenkot’s potential partners, but that would still not guarantee that he receives the next mandate.
Even if Eisenkot fails, Herzog is not required to specifically task Netanyahu, as the next step would depend on constitutional procedures, parliamentary balances and whether another lawmaker appears capable of forming a government.
Brenner said Eisenkot’s challenge is not limited to assembling enough lawmakers for a confidence vote, but also includes building a government capable of passing a budget, handling security and political challenges and surviving disagreements among its partners.
Although recommendations from 67 lawmakers gave Eisenkot an important political advantage, they did not resolve the contradictions among the parties that backed him for the mandate.
Among the first tests will be United Torah Judaism’s willingness to negotiate, whether a compromise can be reached between Lieberman and the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas’ position and whether the opposition can secure enough votes to replace incumbent Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana of Likud.
The coming period could therefore determine whether Eisenkot’s mandate becomes a new government or remains a numerical majority that cannot be translated into a functioning coalition.
- Reasons for optimism
Maariv political analyst Mati Tuchfeld said that Eisenkot’s mandate has caused “concern among Netanyahu’s circle,” but has also left his associates with some reasons for optimism.
Netanyahu’s allies believe Eisenkot and his partners will struggle to meet the demands of the ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly over legislation granting military-service exemptions to their followers.
Even if Eisenkot reaches agreements with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Tuchfeld said, it remains unclear whether he can build a stable 61-seat coalition.
Potential partners in the “change bloc” could resist broad concessions on conscription after campaigning on pledges to expand military service and distribute the burden more evenly, he said.
Tuchfeld said Netanyahu’s repeated calls for a unity government are not merely a general political message but an attempt to keep the door open to parties within Eisenkot’s camp that oppose forming a government dependent on Arab parties.
Arab citizens make up roughly 20% of Israel’s population of more than 10 million.
- Legal challenge
Beyond the political obstacles, Netanyahu also faces a potential legal challenge that could affect any future attempt to return to power.
On Oct. 23, the Zman Yisrael news website reported on a proposed bill that would restrict an indicted lawmaker from being tasked with forming a government
Under the current law, the president can task any Knesset member with forming a government after consulting parliamentary factions and hearing their recommendations.
Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in May 2020 that the existing legal framework does not prevent a lawmaker indicted for serious crimes from being tasked with forming a government.
According to Zman Yisrael, parties opposed to Netanyahu could seek to pass the proposed legislation restricting the president’s authority so that a lawmaker facing serious criminal charges could not receive the mandate to form a government.
The proposed measure, however, would not apply during the term of the Knesset that passes it. Instead, it would take effect only after another election.
The expected version of the bill would include a provision delaying its implementation until after the election following its passage, giving voters an opportunity to express their position on the legal change.
Eisenkot’s success in forming a government could therefore send Netanyahu into opposition, while his prospects of returning to power would remain tied to parliamentary developments and legal issues.
Netanyahu and Eisenkot both oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state despite UN resolutions supporting its creation under the two-state solution.
In addition to his corruption trial in Israel, Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court under an arrest warrant issued in November 2024 over accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip.
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