- ‘Dan now has the legitimacy and the mandate to show that the values of the EU and NATO align with what Romanian citizens want,’ says political scientist Aurelian Muntean
- Romania’s next government will likely be ‘a grand coalition of pro-European parties,’ Muntean tells Anadolu
- Dan is ‘preparing the ground for the reforms he wants to implement ... parliamentary elections are not due for another three years, so he has time to deliver,’ says expert
ISTANBUL
Romania’s presidential runoff last week was widely viewed as a critical turning point for the country, with a tight contest between far-right candidate George Simion and centrist Nicusor Dan presenting voters with a stark choice between a pro-European path or a shift toward nationalist isolationism.
Initially trailing in the first round on May 4, Dan dramatically pulled ahead on May 18 to secure victory with a slim yet decisive majority of 53.6% in the final vote.
Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), openly expressed admiration for US President Donald Trump and embraced Eurosceptic rhetoric. His campaign pledged to “make Romania great again,” advocating a return to the country’s 1940 borders and opposing military aid to Ukraine.
Dan, by contrast, positioned himself firmly within the pro-European mainstream. A former mayor of Bucharest running as an independent candidate under the slogan “Honest Romania,” he emphasized strengthening ties with both the EU and NATO.
Though running independently in the presidential race, Dan is a well-known figure in Romanian political circles, according to Aurelian Muntean, a political science professor at the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest.
Dan’s political journey started upon his return to Romania in 1998 after completing a PhD in mathematics at Sorbonne University in Paris. He quickly became a prominent advocate against corruption, calling for transparency and institutional reform.
He founded the Save Bucharest Association, a civic initiative that later evolved into the Save Romania Union (USR) political party, earning the third-highest number of votes in the 2016 parliamentary elections.
According to Muntean, Dan’s rise coincided with a period of political transformation in Romania that favored anti-establishment candidates.
“Those were times in which Romanian politics transformed itself … which helped anti-establishment, populist, radical, and even extremist political parties and candidates, to thrive,” he explained.
After an unsuccessful mayoral bid in 2016, Dan triumphed in subsequent elections in 2020 and 2024, both times as an independent candidate following a split with his party over the 2018 constitutional referendum.
“He showed himself as being a proponent of public transparency – in public budgets, decisions, and strategies,” Muntean told Anadolu, suggesting that Dan’s independent stance against corruption contributed to his success at the municipal level and later propelled him to the presidency.
Deeper ties with EU and NATO
Dan’s presidential victory solidifies Romania’s pro-Western foreign policy and signals potential for a more assertive role within the EU and NATO.
Muntean believes that under Dan, Romania will “assume a more active role in European decision-making, particularly in the European Council.”
“Dan now has the legitimacy and the mandate to show that the values of the EU and NATO align with what Romanian citizens want,” he said.
In alignment with his pro-NATO stance, Dan has vowed to maintain strong military and humanitarian support for Ukraine and reinforce Romania’s strategic role on NATO’s eastern flank.
Romania is already slated to host NATO’s largest eastern flank base through the planned expansion of the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base near the Black Sea. The country also plays a crucial role in logistical support to neighboring Ukraine.
Dan, 55, also supports the EU’s ReArm Europe initiative and has committed to increasing Romania’s defense budget and investing in domestic military industries.
He has “argued for increasing military spending, which is in line with ReArm Europe,” distinguishing him markedly from Simion, said Muntean.
In his initial post-election remarks, Dan reaffirmed Romania’s NATO commitments, telling NATO chief Mark Rutte that the country “will remain a firm ally in NATO,” and emphasizing defense investment as a key priority.
Currently, Romania’s defense spending stands at 2.5% of GDP, already above NATO’s target, but Dan pledged to increase it further to 3.5% by 2030.
Coalition prospects and challenges ahead
Despite securing the presidency, Dan now faces the task of unifying a politically divided country and implementing reforms to solidify Romania’s Western orientation and address domestic economic concerns.
While Dan remains independent, potential allies include his former party, USR, and the influential National Liberal Party (PNL), whose vice president – interim Romanian President Ilie Bolojan – publicly supported Dan in the runoff against Simion.
Muntean expects Dan to select Bolojan as prime minister, noting, “His name was put forward by Dan as his preferred candidate for the prime minister’s position.”
The Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) was another party that supported Dan in the presidential run-off. The UDMR, along with the 18 MPs of other minorities, are expected to be part of Dan's coalition, according to Muntean.
However, this alliance alone would not provide a parliamentary majority, and the expert suggested that Dan might also seek cooperation with another pro-European establishment party, the Social Democrats (PSD).
“In my opinion, we’ll likely see a grand coalition of pro-European parties,” Muntean predicted.
Despite past criticisms of the PSD, Muntean believes Dan remains open to collaboration: “He has shown moderation and a willingness to work with the parties we have.”
While coalitions have proven fragile in Romania’s past, a grand coalition involving the PSD, PNL, and USR could provide political stability, enabling Dan’s pro-European agenda.
Meanwhile, Simion’s AUR is expected to remain outside any governing coalition, given its anti-EU stance, according to Muntean.
With early elections improbable, the expert continued, Dan will likely have sufficient time to pursue his agenda, focusing on anti-corruption measures, economic reforms, and strengthening Romania’s position within Europe.
“He’s preparing the ground for the reforms he wants to implement,” Muntean said. “Luckily, parliamentary elections are not due for another three years, so he has time to deliver.”
