June 26, 2016•Update: June 28, 2016
By Alyssa McMurtry
MADRID
Exit polls from Spain’s second election in six months suggest the country will see yet another fragmented parliament with a minority government led by its current Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy.
The poll, conducted by Sigma Dos for Spanish Television, predicts Rajoy would get enough seats to win, down slightly from 2015.
This would mean that all parties would need to agree to a pact to form a government, something which could not be accomplished even after last December’s elections.
According to polls, what is different from December is that Unidos Podemos would reach second place from its current third place to become the most important opposition in Spain’s parliament, gaining between 91 and 95 seats compared to 69 seats in 2015.
Unidos Podemos, a far-left anti-austerity party, has seen extraordinary rise since the financial crisis devastated Spain’s economy.
If the exit polls prove to be correct, then Sunday night would be the party’s best results in its short history.
The exit polls also predict that Socialists would lose a significant amount of seats compared to December, suggesting left-wing voters shifted away from the center and tradition towards a more radical change.
Ciudadanos, another new party that broke on the scene recently and had upset the traditional balance of power in the center-right, is predicted to lose a significant amount of seats compared to December; it may still maintain fourth place, but with 26 to 30 seats instead of 40.
Exit polls from Spain’s 2015 election were generally accurate but underestimated the amount of seats the traditional parties won and overestimated the seats won by the two new parties, Ciudadanos and Podemos.
The evening turnout poll showed a slump in participation throughout the country. By 6 p.m. local time (16.00 GMT), Home Office data showed turnout was down by seven points compared to December’s elections. In fact, this turnout rate was the lowest seen by 6 p.m. since Spanish democracy began, according to Spanish media.
The polls closed at 8 p.m. (18.00 GMT) and officials expect the official results to come in around 10 p.m. (20.00 GMT).
The last time Spaniards voted on Dec. 20, 2015, two new parties, Podemos on the left and Ciudadanos in the center, took a considerable amount of seats away from the two traditional parties, which had been tainted by corruption scandals. The bipartisan system was, for the first time in Spanish democracy, becoming obsolete.
The results of the last election were extremely fractured. Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party won a minority government, followed closely by the Socialist Party, Podemos and Cuidadanos respectively. In order to govern, pacts were necessary, but all attempts failed—the deadline ran out and King Felipe called new elections.
