BERLIN
German conservative politician Friedrich Merz is poised for victory in Sunday's election and is expected to become the country's next chancellor if he succeeds in forming a coalition government in the coming weeks.
Merz's center-right CDU/CSU alliance is projected to win 29% of votes, according to the latest projections by the public broadcaster ARD. His rival, incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats, suffered a historic defeat, projected to receive just 16% of votes.
The results indicate that Merz will need to conduct difficult negotiations with other parties to form a stable government. The complex coalition-building process could take several weeks or even months, given the significant policy differences that need to be bridged between potential partners.
A shift from Merkel’s legacy
The 69-year-old took the helm of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in 2022, two years after long-serving conservative leader and former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure from active politics.
Unlike Merkel’s calm and consensus-building style, which helped her win broad support and bridge societal divides, Merz’s confrontational approach and polarizing statements have made him one of Germany’s least popular chancellor candidates.
In contrast to Merkel’s centrist policies, Merz has steered the party toward the right, and his personal popularity remains well below that of the former chancellor, who earned the nickname “mutti” – German for mom – of the nation.
While 21% of men considered him the most suitable candidate for chancellor, only 15% of female voters supported him, according to a recent opinion survey by Ipsos. His backing among young voters was even lower at 13%.
Merz also faced low approval ratings among voters in East German federal states, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains its strongest support base.
Reset for Germany’s economic policies
In his campaign, Merz strongly criticized Scholz’s coalition government, claiming their policies have triggered severe economic stagnation that has forced many companies to shut down factories and cut thousands of jobs.
To revive the struggling economy, the conservative leader has proposed business-friendly policies: lowering corporate tax rates, securing affordable energy, cutting red tape, increasing investments, and establishing a digital ministry to lead Germany's re-industrialization through digitalization.
He criticized the Greens’ insistence on costly and inefficient energy projects and argued that Germany should maintain the nuclear energy option, with a focus on researching fourth- and fifth-generation nuclear technology.
Merz is widely regarded by his supporters as a promising chancellor candidate who understands economic challenges and can offer practical solutions, as he worked many years as a corporate lawyer and board member for leading German and multinational companies.
However, critics point out that despite his extensive political career since university and his business experience, he has never held executive office – either at the state level or as a federal cabinet minister.
Left-wing politicians particularly question his ties to multinational corporations and the financial sector – especially his role as chairman of American multinational investment giant BlackRock’s German division from 2016 to 2020 – arguing that he would prioritize interests of lobby groups over public welfare.
Major overhaul of immigration policy
Merz has made mass migration a central focus of his election campaign, calling for a complete overhaul of Germany’s immigration policies.
He has promised to establish permanent border controls with neighboring countries to significantly reduce irregular migration, while accelerating deportation procedures for rejected asylum seekers.
Merz has declared that Syrians and Afghans without legal status, as well as those migrants who have committed serious crimes in Germany, will face deportation to their home countries.
The Christian Democrats have also pledged to suspend family reunification for those with subsidiary protection status and terminate all voluntary admission programs.
Merz’s strict immigration stance has sparked divided responses. In particular, migrant organizations have criticized his promise to reverse the Scholz government’s reforms on German citizenship and dual nationality.
Critics have also cautioned that his strategy of echoing far-right AfD narratives to attract their voters would not succeed, as voters typically prefer “to support the original party rather than its imitators.”
Backfiring far-right gamble
The conservative politician caused an uproar several weeks ago by introducing anti-immigration legislation to parliament and seeking to pass it with support from the AfD.
Scholz sharply criticized Merz for violating a longstanding principle in German politics – maintaining a “firewall” against far-right parties by refusing to cooperate with extremists.
The initiative backfired when Merz’s controversial bill was rejected after a heated parliamentary debate. About a dozen lawmakers from his own CDU/CSU group broke ranks as well, and refused to support the legislation.
His move sparked widespread protests across Germany, with tens of thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets, accusing Merz of normalizing far-right politics and breaking the post-war consensus against cooperating with extremist parties.
Amid mounting criticism, Merz reversed course, repeatedly emphasizing this week that the Christian Democrats would not cooperate or engage with the AfD after the election.
He highlighted the fundamental differences between the parties, noting that unlike the Christian Democrats, the AfD was taking a stance against Germany’s membership in both the EU and NATO.
Conservative leader backs US and Israel ties
On foreign policy, Merz has signaled a pragmatic approach while emphasizing the importance of transatlantic ties and close cooperation with the US.
“This bond across the Atlantic has held up so far, regardless of which administration is in the White House,” he said recently, during a major foreign policy address in Berlin.
While acknowledging growing tensions between the US and EU under the Trump administration, he argued that “this is also an opportunity that could strengthen Europe.”
He urged European states to adopt a unified position and pursue common European interests in discussions with Trump.
The CDU leader criticized US Vice President JD Vance’s controversial Munich Security Conference speech – where Vance accused Europe of abandoning democratic values – while keeping a measured tone to avoid straining relations before potential discussions with Trump.
As opposition leader, Merz has frequently criticized Scholz’s restrained Ukraine policy over recent months. He pushed for sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine, particularly long-range Taurus missiles capable of striking Russian territory.
Merz contended that bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities would strengthen its position in potential peace talks with Moscow.
The conservative leader has also been a strong supporter of Israel, repeatedly stating that Israel’s security is part of Germany’s “reason of state.”
He has pledged increased support if the Christian Democrats win the elections.
“A government led by me will strengthen our relations with Israel. I will immediately end the de facto export embargo of the current government,” he declared in his recent Berlin speech.
Merz did not make any comment about the Israeli government’s war crimes or killing of thousands of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, but criticized the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
