Alyssa McMurtry
08 March 2024•Update: 08 March 2024
OVIEDO, Spain
Portuguese politicians entered their last day of campaigning on Friday, as voters will head to the polls for a snap national election on Sunday.
The country’s last general elections were held in 2022, but the political scene changed radically after a major corruption scandal triggered long-time Socialist president Antonio Costa to resign in November.
Costa, who won a sweeping majority in the 2022 vote, has not been charged. But members of his inner circle are being investigated for malfeasance, corruption and influence peddling related to lithium, hydrogen and data center concessions.
Indeed, corruption has become a massive campaign issue.
Not only is former Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates facing a high-profile graft trial, but since the snap elections were called, the top two Social Democratic Party (PSD) officials in the islands of Madeira had to resign over alleged corruption.
PSD is a center-right party. In this election, it is running under the banner of the Democratic Alliance (AD), alongside other conservative parties.
With both of Portugal’s main parties grappling with charges of mismanagement, the far-right party Chega has gained momentum.
While Chega is not a leading party, a poll by the Catholic University for media outlets RTP, Antena 1 and Publico published on Friday suggests that the far-right party will more than double or even triple its past results.
The polls suggest that Chega could win between 33 and 41 seats — up from 12 seats in 2022.
Chega’s leader, Andre Ventura, a writer, professor and former sports pundit, has been fined for anti-Romani statements and has spoken about the need to reduce Islamic migration.
However, in this campaign, his rallying cry has been related to graft.
“Yes, we are extremists. Extremists against corruption,” Ventura said this week after being accused of extremism by the AD candidate Luis Montenegro. “The people know that the only vote that will change anything is a vote for Chega.”
Despite Chega’s rapid gains, it is still in third position.
Polling in second place is the Socialist Party. It is predicted to win between 70 and 80 seats, losing a third of the 120 MPs it managed to get elected in 2022.
The likely winner will be Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance, though polls suggest that with between 88 and 98 seats, it will fall short of the 116 seats needed to form a majority.
That could see the center-right party needing to turn to Chega as a kingmaker. Even though Portugal’s Parliament is set to be divided by eight parties, that is the one obvious alliance that polls suggest will be enough to win power.
Some polls predicted a similar outcome in Spain’s national elections in the summer of 2023. However, Spain's Socialist Party performed slightly better than expected and the far-right party Vox was locked out of government.
