Polish foreign minister warns of economic hit from possible EU exit

WARSAW

Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski used his annual address to parliament Thursday to issue a blunt warning about the economic consequences of leaving the European Union (EU), saying a “Polexit” would trigger sharp falls in GDP, wages and exports and weaken the country’s security at a time of heightened regional risk.

Sikorski outlined the government’s foreign policy priorities for 2026, framing EU and NATO membership as the twin pillars of Poland’s security and prosperity.

“Be careful with your dreams — they may come true,” he said, addressing political forces calling for a looser relationship with Brussels.

According to estimates presented during the speech, a Polish exit from the EU would reduce GDP by between 4% and 7% over five to 10 years, cut wages by up to 8%, and slash exports of meat and dairy products by as much as 45% to 50%. Sikorski noted that Poland exports around €350 billion ($413 billion) worth of goods annually, nearly three-quarters of them to EU markets.

“Poland’s national interest is to remain in the EU and co-shape it,” Sikorski said, adding that sovereignty was strengthened, not diminished, by participation in EU decision-making. “Outside the EU, Poland would be poorer, weaker and less secure.”

He said the country was already facing sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns linked to Moscow, and warned against political complacency. “We see the threat,” he said, citing government figures showing thousands of cyberattacks against Polish institutions each day, as well as recent incidents involving Russian drones and acts of sabotage.

Reiterating Poland’s strong backing for Kyiv, Sikorski argued that supporting Ukraine was not an act of charity but a matter of national interest. “A free, Western-anchored Ukraine improves Poland’s security,” he said, warning that a Ukrainian defeat would worsen Poland’s strategic environment.

The foreign minister stressed that EU and NATO membership remained inseparable elements of Poland’s security architecture, rejecting narratives that portray Brussels or Berlin as threats to national sovereignty.

“The EU helps manage relations with Germany,” Sikorski said, arguing that common rules and institutions constrain power and prevent domination by stronger states. “We should not invent enemies in the West. The real threat comes from the East.”

His comments appeared aimed at countering nationalist rhetoric that has gained traction in parts of the opposition and at reassuring European partners of Warsaw’s commitment to deeper cooperation on defense, energy and industrial policy.

Thursday’s address was closely watched for domestic political reasons. President Karol Nawrocki attended the session, which followed weeks of public tension between the government and the presidency over EU defense financing mechanisms and national security policy.

Sikorski also used the occasion to defend the government’s approach to relations with key partners, including the United States, while warning that transatlantic ties could no longer be taken for granted. He argued that Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own security, including through increased defense spending and industrial cooperation.