WARSAW
Poland is gearing up for crucial parliamentary elections this Sunday, with the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party seeking an unprecedented third term in power.
Poland has a party-list proportional representation voting system for its 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm.
Parties win seats based on the aggregate vote for their candidates in each constituency and then distribute the seats to candidates with the highest totals.
Individual parties must win at least 5% of the vote to earn a seat in parliament and coalitions need at least 8%.
In the run-up to the elections, PiS has been polling around 36% and the opposition Civic Coalition (KO), headed by the Civic Platform (PO) party, is at around 30%.
Others, including three smaller players, are between 9-14%: Confederation, an economically libertarian and socially conservative party, the Third Way coalition, made up of the People’s Party and a movement led by a television celebrity, and the Left, a coalition of three parties.
If it wins, PiS wants to drive through more of its conservative agenda and continue to fight Poland’s corner in the EU, in particular on migrant quotas.
If the opposition PO wins, Poland will likely patch up with the EU, reverse PiS’ judicial reforms and also many of its more socially conservative policies, for example on abortion.
Both sides are committed to supporting Ukraine, but PiS has wavered in recent weeks, seeking to fend off rising support for the pro-Russian far-right Confederation party.
A hostile campaign
In the summer, PiS turned its guns on Donald Tusk, the leader of the PO and someone it says is beholden to Germany, and therefore the EU.
Just last month, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski described Tusk as “pure evil” and the “personification of evil in Poland.”
Kaczynski accuses Tusk of planning to abolish social programs introduced by PiS, raise the retirement age and sell off Polish companies.
Despite the fierce talk, though, Kaczynski backed out of a face-to-face televised debate this month.
“Jarek (Jaroslaw), where are you?” Tusk called out at a recent rally that drew several hundred thousand people to the capital Warsaw, but was not shown on public television.
PO has sought to highlight PiS malfeasance over a recently exposed cash-for-visas scandal, while also raising questions about Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s wealth.
In a heavily politicized media landscape, however, PO-supporting media have tended to run with the stories, while the main public television and PiS-friendly press largely ignored them.
The resignation of two senior generals in the Polish army this week was also played down in public media.
Key issues
PiS is also holding a four-question referendum alongside the election.
One question asks Poles if they want the EU-imposed “admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa.”
“The referendum is aimed at polarizing the election as a straight choice between PiS and PO. PiS feels that such a polarization is in its interests and could persuade many of its more reluctant supporters to turn out and vote, particularly if the opposition becomes synonymous with Tusk,” according to Aleks Szczerbiak, a lecturer at Sussex University.
Kaczynski, prime minister from 2006 to 2007, has unveiled a 300-page program that calls for further judicial changes, limiting judges’ and the Supreme Court’s ability to review government policies.
Foreign observers have warned about political backsliding in Poland under PiS, pointing to issues such as restricted abortion rights and politicization of the judiciary.
That has led to EU funds to the tune of €35 billion being withheld, cases in the European Court and the possibility of Warsaw losing voting rights in the Council of the European Union.
The PO promises to undo PiS’ changes to the judiciary and media to ensure their independence.
A PO victory would probably improve Warsaw’s relations with Germany, which have come under strain, and the party has been courting women’s votes by promising to loosen abortion, IVF and contraception laws.
PiS could get a boost if one or more of the smaller parties fail to clear the threshold to win seats in parliament.
If PiS finishes ahead but only by a small margin, PO and the New Left or Third Way could form a government.
Confederation was polling as high as 14% over the summer, but has sunk to 9%. Opinion polls have shown that the party is popular among young men, while the Left appeals strongly to young women.
Confederation leaders, however, have said they will not enter a coalition.
Even before campaigning, security was one of the key topics in Polish politics.
PiS leaders have promised to ramp up military spending and build one of the strongest armies in Europe, pledging to spend over 4% of GDP on defense in 2024.
Economics at play
Inflation still hovers around 9-10% in Poland, which PiS has blamed on external factors, mainly the war in Ukraine and the EU’s green policies.
Both the main parties are pledging to spend, but Poland’s $680 billion economy is weakening.
Financial services firm ING has downgraded its growth forecast for 2023 from an already modest 1% to 0.4%.
High borrowing needs will mean the budget will become more reliant on foreign financing in 2024. In the revised budget for 2023, the deficit is seen coming in at 4.5% of GDP, compared to 3.4% forecast in April.
“PiS has been spreading cash around like a firehouse, essentially trying to buy the next election. The loose monetary policy of the central bank is part of the same game. Neither has been good for inflation,” according to Anthony Levitas of Brown University.
PiS also proposes raising child benefits and offering free medicine to children and the elderly.
The KO’s program includes pay rises for teachers and civil servants, and under its government, Poland would have a minimum wage of 6,450 zlotys ($1,500) from July 2024, up from 4,000 zlotys ($930) per month.
“Regardless of the election result, social spending will increase, as will the risks for the state budget,” said Maciej Gazda, head of forecasting and econometric modelling at market research firm PMR.
“We estimate that in both cases, financing will be very difficult and may involve either attempts to increase budget revenues or giving up some of the promises.”
The polls will be close and some are predicting a hung parliament and there is even talk of snap elections in early 2024.
An ex-Polish ambassador told Anadolu, requesting anonymity, that if Tusk wins and does not set up an international tribunal to try PiS leaders of breaking the law and the constitution since 2015, his government will not last long.
“I would give him 18 months maximum,” he said.
“There will need to be bloodspilling in public media, local government, the civil service and higher education, where PiS has packed its own people.”
