Macron's movement tipped to win French majority

By Hajer M'tiri

PARIS

Just two days before the first round of France’s decisive legislative elections, President Emmanuel Macron's La Republique En Marche (LREM) political movement is being tipped to clinch a governing majority in parliament.

France's overseas voters have already overwhelmingly backed Macron, with LREM winning 10 of the 11 seats set aside for the country's 1.3 million expatriates.

The two-round legislative elections across 566 constituencies in mainland France are scheduled to take place on Sunday and June 18 to elect 577 members to the National Assembly, France’s lower and more powerful house of parliament.

Macron needs to win a majority in order to get his reform bills passed by parliament.

Despite an investigation into the financial dealings of two of Macron's cabinet ministers, his political movement is seen as securing 370 to 400 seats, far more than the 289 necessary for an absolute majority, according to an OpinionWay/Orpi poll published on Thursday.

The conservative Republicans and their allies are predicted to win between 120 and 150 seats. The center-left Socialists may win just 15 to 25 and Jean-Luc Melenchon’s left-wing La France insoumise (Unbowed France) party could take between 12 and 22.

The far-right National Front of recently defeated presidential candidate Marine Le Pen was predicted to return between eight to 18 lawmakers.

Five to 10 seats could be claimed by other candidates.

Turnout in the first round is estimated to be 54 percent. If confirmed, this would be a historic low. In France’s last legislative elections, in 2012, turnout in the first round stood at 57.22 percent.

A Macron victory on this scale would be the biggest majority seen in France since Charles de Gaulle’s landslide win in 1968. It would likely bring sweeping changes to France's political landscape.

The outcome of the elections will also play a great role in shaping Macron's five-year term.