Germany's right-wing AfD set for victory in Saxony-Anhalt with record vote

Germany’s far-right AfD is set to win Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt with a record 44% of the vote, the latest projections showed, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats slumped to a historic low of 17.5%.

Despite that record share of the vote, the AfD was still seen falling short of a majority of seats in the Magdeburg state parliament, according to projections by public broadcaster ARD. With all major parties ruling out a coalition with the AfD, the result pointed to political uncertainty and long talks on forming a government.

The Social Democrats (SPD) were third at 9.2%, one of their weakest showings in the eastern state. The Greens followed at 8.9%, with the socialist Left Party at 8.6%. The left-wing BSW was at 5.1% and on a knife-edge over the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. The Free Democrats, junior partners in the outgoing government, were seen at 2.5% and out of the legislature.

“We have achieved exactly what we set out to achieve. We have made history in this country,” the AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund told the public television. He also acknowledged that early projections still left it unclear whether the party could win a parliamentary majority and govern alone.

Sunday’s vote put the AfD on course to more than double its result from 2021, when it won 20.8% in Saxony-Anhalt. The projected win would also be the party’s best result in any German state election.

Seat tally leaves government options unclear

According to the ARD projections, the AfD was expected to win 39 of 83 seats in the new Saxony-Anhalt parliament, three short of an absolute majority and the ability to govern on its own.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ruling CDU is projected to win 16 seats, down from 40 in 2021. The Greens and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) are expected to receive eight seats each, while the left-wing populist BSW would get four seats if it clears the 5% threshold, as current projections suggest.

If the official count confirms the projections, the BSW would become the potential kingmaker in Magdeburg. The AfD’s projected 39 seats would fall three short of the 42 needed to elect a premier in the first or second ballot, meaning the party could not govern alone.

A potential coalition of the CDU, SPD and Greens would have only about 32 seats. Even with the Left Party added, that camp would reach 40 -- still short of an absolute majority, but ahead of the AfD, 40-39.

The BSW could back an AfD candidate, support a CDU-backed candidate, or abstain in a third ballot, when only a plurality is required.