German far-right leads in latest polls ahead of regional elections

BERLIN

The support for the far-right AfD is rising ahead of crucial elections in Germany’s three eastern states next month.

The regional elections, widely seen as a test for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-liberal coalition, will be held on Sept. 1 in Thuringia and Saxony, and on Sept. 22 in Brandenburg.

According to the latest opinion polls, the anti-immigrant AfD is on track to come in first place in Thuringia and Brandenburg, while pollsters are predicting a tight race between the AfD and center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in Saxony.

In its longtime stronghold Thuringia, where the AfD picked extremist Bjorn Hocke as its lead candidate, the far-right party is polling around 30%, about nine percentage ahead of the Christian Democrats, according to the Forsa institute.

The newly formed left-wing populist party, Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), is expected to reach 18%, and become the third-largest group in the state parliament.

Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and their coalition partners the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) were braced for heavy losses. Their combined share of the vote was less than 14%, according to the representative poll released on Tuesday.

Close race in Saxony

In the neighboring state of Saxony, a neck-and-neck race was underway between the far-right AfD and the center-right CDU, with the latest polls showing that the Christian Democrats were leading by only a few points.

Tuesday’s poll by Forsa institute put support for conservative Christian Democrats at 33%, while the anti-immigrant AfD was at around 30%, better than its showing in the previous state election.

In another poll conducted by the Insa institute, the far-right AfD was seen reaching as much as 32% -- enough to give it first place but not enough to win a majority in the state parliament.

Sahra Wagenknecht’s left-wing BSW party was expected to win up to 15% of votes, according to the latest opinion polls.

Saxony’s conservative premier, Michael Kretschmer, has already announced that Christian Democrats would not cooperate with the far-right, and ruled out forming a coalition government with the AfD party. He also sharply criticized the BSW, but left the door open for possible cooperation after the elections.

AfD leads polls in Brandenburg

In Brandenburg, the state that encircles the capital Berlin, the far-right AfD has been leading the opinion polls for months, amid economic woes, and growing discontent with the SPD-led coalition government.

The anti-immigrant party is expected to get around 24% of the vote, four points ahead of the co-ruling Social Democrats, according to the latest poll by the Insa institute.

Support for Christian Democrats (CDU) is at 19%, while the left-wing populist party BSW has 17%, the Greens 5%, and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) has only 2%, according to the representative poll.

The AfD party, which runs on an anti-Islam and anti-immigration platform, significantly increased its vote share in the European Parliament elections in June, winning 15.9% of the vote nationwide, taking the second place ahead of Social Democrats.

The party has been embroiled in a number of scandals in recent years, including a secret meeting of its senior officials to plan mass expulsion of immigrants, which have raised doubts about the party’s commitment to democratic values.

However, these scandals have not eroded support for the party, especially in Germany’s less developed eastern states.

The country’s domestic intelligence agency has been monitoring the AfD’s youth wing and various branches since 2021 due to suspected anti-democratic aspirations within the party.

In recent years, prominent members of the party have sparked controversy with their anti-immigrant, antisemitic, and Islamophobic remarks. Critics accuse the AfD of encouraging xenophobia and anti-Muslim racism in Germany.