French PM warns of 'turbulence' amid no-confidence vote

ISTANBUL

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier cautioned on Tuesday evening about rising "tension in France," emphasizing the importance of his continued leadership to help the nation navigate through its current challenges.

In an interview with French media broadcast ahead of an imminent no-confidence vote, Barnier characterized the situation as both "serious and difficult."

"If there are troubles, shocks, possible turbulence ... we don't know what can happen," he stated, adding, "The moment is serious. It is difficult."

Barnier highlighted the broader geopolitical context, referring to the "dangerous international environment," which includes the inauguration of a new US president, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and growing discontent among the French people.

Barnier's administration is facing a crucial test as the French parliament debates two no-confidence motions today.

The motions, proposed by far-left and far-right opposition parties, could result in Barnier’s government being ousted, an unprecedented move since 1962.

The political crisis comes shortly after Barnier assumed office in September.

Speaking to lawmakers on Tuesday, Barnier stressed the seriousness of the situation, noting that it is "difficult in budgetary and financial terms" and warning that the vote could intensify the nation’s current challenges.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau supported Barnier's concerns, saying that the collapse of the government would create an "insufferable situation" for the country. Retailleau criticized opposition parties for playing "Russian roulette" with France’s future.

The debate is set to begin at 4 pm local time (GMT+1), with the vote expected later in the evening.

Two separate motions have been introduced: one by the far-left New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and another by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN).

Le Pen confirmed her party’s support for the NFP’s motion, heightening the chances of the government’s defeat.

The crisis escalated on Monday when Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the French constitution to pass the 2025 budget without a parliamentary vote.

The move, intended to reduce France’s public-sector deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5% through €60 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, has been heavily criticized from both political sides.

French media have referred to the no-confidence vote as a "moment of truth" that could plunge the country into political uncertainty.

Finance Minister Antoine Armand warned that the opposition’s actions could harm the nation. "Who will bear the consequences? First and foremost, the French people," Armand said in an interview with France 2 television.

If Barnier’s government is overthrown, it will be the shortest-lived administration since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. Although Barnier would be required to resign, President Macron could request that he remain in a caretaker role.

With parliamentary dissolution prohibited until July 2025, France will face months of uncertainty before new elections could be called.