ISTANBUL
High temperatures may increase the risk of drought in inland areas of Europe and Asia, and may also have negative effects on yield and production in Türkiye, where tropical weather systems are becoming more prolonged, according to climate and geography experts.
Barbaros Gonencgil, head of the Turkish Geographical Society, stressed that understanding the impact of climate change on drought requires examining how climate types are affected by these changes.
Gonencgil, a lecturer in physical geography at Istanbul University, emphasized the significance of regional examples over country-specific analyses and identified terrestrial, inland regions as particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
From this perspective, high rural activity regions in Asia – certain parts of China, significant parts of India, as well as rural areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan – will be affected, he said, adding that inland regions of the Balkans and Eastern European countries might also be at risk.
Northern Europe may observe see precipitation in the coming months, while Southern and Central Europe will face significant stress, he added.
Gonencgil predicted that drought in Europe would lead to reduced water levels in rivers and dams, impacting energy production, and causing stress on agriculture due to water scarcity and inadequate irrigation.
Furthermore, heat waves from high temperatures could result in health problems and increased energy consumption due to higher air conditioning usage.
As for Türkiye, Gonencgil warned of potential water stress as it struggles to store enough water during winter, especially during the risky period of the summer months into September.
Murat Turkes, a member of the executive committee for the Bogazici University Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, highlighted that countries heavily affected by extreme weather events rely heavily on cereal and rice production for agriculture. These countries are mostly situated in tropical and subtropical regions and are primarily developing and less developed nations.
Turkes also noted that western Europe experienced early heat waves this year, and many regions worldwide are grappling with severe drought and high temperatures. The effects of El Nino, including additional warming and altered precipitation patterns, will exacerbate the global situation.
During El Nino years, Sub-Saharan African and Southeast Asian countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are heavily affected by drought. Turkes said that when the climate changes, product losses and a decrease in yield occur, and even though the yield remains the same, the quality of the product falls and its nutritional values decrease.
Türkiye also faces an annual wheat deficit of about 3 million tons even in the years when the yield is good, which can double to 6 million tons during dry years like 2021. He emphasized that Türkiye's climate is shifting towards becoming tropical, affecting agricultural yield and production, despite the presence of a winter season.
He recommended developing resilient crops for climate change, able to withstand high temperatures and adjust to changing precipitation patterns. He also advised adopting rain-dependent dry farming, particularly useful in drought-prone countries.
Turkes highlighted the need to address water usage in Türkiye, where 75% is allocated to agriculture, but around 75% is also lost due to leaks, stressing the importance of using water wisely.
* Writing by Seda Sevencan
