El Nino forecast to reach record strength as global heat, weather risks rise: WMO

An ongoing El Nino event is strengthening rapidly and is forecast to push key Pacific sea-surface temperatures to record levels, increasing the risks of extreme heat, drought and flooding around the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday.

In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the UN weather agency said there is a near-100% likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027, with the event expected to peak around December.

“El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, warning it will potentially be "one of the strongest since at least 1950."

For October-December, the average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is forecast to reach about 3.7C (6.7F) above normal, which the WMO said would be "the highest since observations began."

The previous record was 2.6C (4.7F) above normal during the November 2015-January 2016 period.

The WMO said El Nino is likely to bring above-average temperatures across large parts of the globe while significantly shifting rainfall patterns.

Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast in areas including the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, northern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America and southeastern South America.

Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America.

Saulo said El Nino does not create additional planetary heat but releases heat already stored in the ocean, warning that the ocean from which the current event is drawing is “the warmest we've ever measured it.”

The WMO said national meteorological services and regional climate forums are providing regular updates to governments and humanitarian partners to support preparedness and risk management.