Global energy needs are predicted to rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30 percent between now and 2040, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2017 on Tuesday.
The IEA's report showed that this amount is equivalent to adding another China and India to current global demand.
The largest contribution to demand growth of almost 30 percent comes from India, whose share of global energy use rises to 11 percent by 2040, it said.
Southeast Asia is another rising heavyweight in global energy, with demand growing at twice the pace of China.
Overall, developing countries in Asia account for two-thirds of global energy growth, with the rest coming mainly from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
"Since 2000, coal-fired power generation capacity has grown by nearly 900 gigawatts (GW), but net additions from today to 2040 are only 400 GW and many of these are plants already under construction," the report showed.
In India, the share of coal in the power mix drops from three-quarters in 2016 to less than half in 2040.
Oil demand continues to grow up to 2040, albeit at a steadily decreasing pace. Natural gas use rises by 45 percent to 2040; with more limited room to expand in the power sector, while industrial demand becomes the largest area for growth.
The outlook for nuclear power has dimmed since last year’s Outlook, the IEA noted, but China continues to lead a gradual rise in output, overtaking the U.S. by 2030 to become the largest producer of nuclear-based electricity.
Renewables capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants to 2040, as they become, for many countries, the least-costly source of new generation.
- China leads energy transition
China’s choices will play a "huge role" in determining global trends, the IEA asserted, adding that it could spark a faster clean energy transition.
The scale of China’s clean energy deployment, technology exports and outward investment makes it a key determinant of momentum behind the low-carbon transition. The report noted that one-third of the world’s new wind power and solar PV installed in China is based on a 2040 scenario. The report also said that China accounts for more than 40 percent of global investment in electric vehicles.
By the mid-2020s, the U.S. is expected to become the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter and a few years later a net exporter of oil – still a major importer of heavier crudes that suit the configuration of its refineries, but a larger exporter of light crude and refined products, the report said.
By Ebru Sengul