The target of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce carbon intensity by at least 40% by 2030 is forecast to curb international marine bunker oil demand by around 370,000 barrels per day, a new Wood Mackenzie report titled IMO 2050: Charting a Course Towards Decarbonization showed on Friday.
The IMO plans to adopt amendments on the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Energy Efficiency Design Index for existing ships (EEXI) at the 76th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in June this year.
These amendments, which are planned to be enforced from 2023 onwards, require further efficiency improvements for particularly very large new-build containerships. Additionally, existing ships with a tonnage over 400 will need to comply with tighter fuel-efficiency regulations.
"The use of marine LNG could ease growth in shipping carbon emissions, but LNG carbon content is still high relative to low carbon alternatives,” Iain Mowat, Wood Mackenzie’s principal analyst, was quoted as saying.
Mowat stated that a major shift towards low and zero-carbon fuels by 2050 is required to reach the IMO's target to halve overall greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping by 2050.
"Achieving this 2050 target though would result in a further decline in international marine bunker oil demand of around 0.9 million barrels per day by 2050 compared to our current outlook," he added.
According to the report, marine LNG is expected to grow steadily within 10 years, displacing nearly 0.7 million barrels per day of oil bunkers by 2030.
Mowat said that synthetic e-fuels could become more widespread by the end of the 2040s supported by the increasing availability of green hydrogen capacity.
"This could be the long-term solution towards decarbonizing the shipping industry," he concluded.
By Nuran Erkul Kaya