Security risks in the Strait of Hormuz are weighing on energy shipping, with oil tankers continuing to pass through the waterway at reduced levels while LNG traffic has seen a sharper disruption.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 21.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.9 million bpd in the second quarter of 2026.
LNG flows declined from 10.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) to 0.8 bcf/d over the same period.
This represents a decline of 77% in oil flows through the strait, while LNG flows fell by 92%.
The sharper decline highlights the greater disruption facing LNG shipments through the strategic waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz is the sole maritime outlet for LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with around one-fifth of global LNG supply passing through the waterway.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) estimates that following the escalation of the conflict, the global LNG market lost more than 300 Qatari LNG cargoes and around 20 UAE cargoes between March and June.
Weekly data from London-based maritime data and analytics company Clarksons Research also show the diverging trends in oil and LNG shipping are reflected in vessel traffic.
In the week ending June 27, 66 crude oil tankers and 16 LNG carriers transited Hormuz. By the week ending Aug. 29, four crude oil tanker transits were recorded, while no LNG carrier transits were observed.
Oil, meanwhile, has had greater access to alternative transportation routes.
According to the EIA, oil flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rose from 5.4 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 8.1 million bpd in the second quarter of 2026, partly as Saudi Arabia redirected some of its oil through the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
- LNG infrastructure lacks flexibility of oil infrastructure
Mehdy Touil, LNG lead specialist and shareholder at Calypso Commodities, told Anadolu that significant structural differences between oil and LNG help explain the divergence in shipping activity.
Oil has a larger and more flexible tanker fleet as well as extensive storage capacity, while LNG does not have the same degree of flexibility, Touil said.
LNG is transported after natural gas is cooled to around minus 162 degrees Celsius and converted into liquid form. Touil noted that LNG carriers are highly specialized vessels designed for cryogenic service, creating an important distinction from an insurance perspective and resulting in lower risk tolerance than in other hydrocarbon trades.
Touil also pointed to the concentration of Qatar's LNG export infrastructure as a major constraint.
Qatar's LNG export system is concentrated at Ras Laffan, while all of the country's seaborne LNG exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving no alternative maritime outlet for Qatari LNG.
"You can reroute a cargo, but you can't reroute the massive export infrastructure Qatar has developed over decades," Touil said.
Replacing LNG supply lost through Hormuz with additional volumes from other producers would also be difficult in the short term, according to Touil, as most liquefaction facilities are operating at maximum capacity, and sometimes above it.
Developing new LNG export facilities takes several years, he said, adding that he does not expect another producer to replace Qatar's central role in the global LNG industry anytime soon.
- Vessel costs influence willingness to take risks
Fabio Reale, head of LNG Analytics at Clarksons, said differences in vessel costs could influence how shipowners assess the risks associated with transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil tankers are cheaper than LNG carriers, which may make oil tanker owners more willing to accept the risks of transiting the waterway, Reale said.
Some LNG shipowners, by contrast, may be less willing to take such risks, while additional war-risk insurance premiums are calculated as a percentage of a vessel's value, he noted.
Reale said the risks of attacks and mine-related damage would need to decline significantly for LNG traffic through the strait to recover.
- Security and geopolitics play growing role in energy flows
Francesco Sassi, postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, said oil and LNG markets operate differently, with threats to vessels and risks affecting energy production infrastructure in the Gulf contributing to the more pronounced decline in LNG shipping.
As the war continues, Gulf states are increasingly being called on to secure energy cargoes using their own resources rather than relying on assets from the commercial shipping industry, Sassi said.
He said this was pushing oil, LNG and other commodity markets further away from purely market-based models, while increasing the role of security and geopolitics.
Sassi said a return to pre-war LNG shipping levels remains highly uncertain under current conditions, while forecasting when energy flows could stabilize has become increasingly difficult as geopolitics plays a greater role in international energy markets.
Although oil can move through several alternative infrastructures in the region, including pipelines, Sassi said oil flows are also unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon.
By Gokce Kucuk Topbas
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
