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Gas shortages are not expected to affect Europe this year, despite cold weather forecast

- European storage levels are very close to maximum levels observed over past 10 years, experts say

home > Natural Gas, Finance, Lng/Lpg, Invesments, General 11.01.2024 11:06 Murat Temizer

Gas shortages are not expected to affect Europe this year, despite cold weather forecast

Europe is more prepared than last year in having sufficient energy supplies, even in the event of anticipated cold spells.

Europe, in a bid to reduce natural gas imports from Russia, increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases, stocked up gas in storage facilities and raised the share of renewable energy in its portfolio.

Energy experts told Anadolu that although cold weather conditions will be a factor in Europe's demand, the continent’s preparedness has made a difference.

Even with the recent cold weather in Europe, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research fellow at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, believes that natural gas supplies are sufficient right now.

Corbeau said that with an 83.5% storage filling rate as of Jan. 8, European storage levels are very close to the maximum level observed over the past 10 years.

This has been supported by healthy supply rates from Norway, where there is no planned maintenance for the next few weeks, and by large-scale LNG deliveries to Europe, despite the surge in LNG exports to North East Asia in December last year.

The Dutch government has also decided to restart Groningen production due to the cold snap, she said.

In addition, Russian pipeline gas deliveries through Ukraine and Türkiye are still continuing, albeit at significantly reduced levels compared to 2021, when 140 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas was transmitted, but this fell to just 27 bcm last year.

As a result, gas prices have not significantly increased over the past weeks and remain in the low €30 per megawatt-hour (MWh) as of the second week of January, relative to price spikes seen during the worst of the crisis in 2022 at above €300 per MWh.

Corbeau underlined that while heating demand from the residential sector has increased due to the cold weather, industrial gas demand has remained depressed throughout 2023.

She said that, in contrast to early 2023, the situation is considerably better regarding French nuclear generation and European hydro levels, both of which are helping prevent a significant rise in gas demand in the power sector.

Corbeau elaborated that gas demand in the power sector dropped last year due to the combination of lower power demand at the transmission level as well as higher hydro and renewable levels.

"Looking forward, EU gas demand levels in 2024 may largely depend on how cold the weather will be, given the significant impact of temperatures on EU gas demand. Gas demand in the EU power sector is likely to continue to drop, driven by the increasing contribution of renewables (wind and solar) and potentially a higher contribution of nuclear, notably in France, where Flamanville is expected to start," she said.

However, she warned of the impact of droughts on raising gas demand this year, especially if they are combined with hot weather to drive up power demand in the summer.

"Whether EU industrial gas demand recovers in line with lower gas prices is still uncertain due to the macroeconomic headwinds faced by European industrial users as well as competition from other regions," she said.

Corbeau does not anticipate any major increases in global LNG supplies this year.

She noted the headwinds Russia is facing with its Arctic LNG 2 project, which is due to start in the first quarter.

She also cited that other large LNG projects, like the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi facilities in the US, will only start at the end of the year if they are not delayed.

Other projects that are due to start early this year, such as the Tortue Floating LNG (FLNG) in Senegal and Mauritania or the Congo FLNG, are small.

She further explained that transit issues are of concern with low water levels in the Panama Canal, and Houthi attacks on ships have caused bottlenecks in the Panama and Suez Canals, which have forced ship owners to take alternative, longer routes.

“Meanwhile, 2024 could very well see the end of Russian transit through Ukraine as the transit contract expires at the end of the year," she added.

- Storage levels are still significantly above ten-year averages

Jonathan Elkind, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy and a former energy official in the Clinton and Obama administrations, also shared his confidence in Europe’s ability to have sufficient natural gas supplies this winter.

"Although much of Europe is experiencing very cold weather at present, I see no reason to worry about the adequacy of natural gas supply in the European Union this winter," he said.

He also echoed that storage levels are still significantly above ten-year averages, in part due to a significant drop in gas-dependent industrial demand across Europe since the Russia-Ukraine War started. Another contributing factor is the number of heating-degree days, the standard measure of how cold the weather has been for how long, which has been below average.

"One can never speak with complete certainty about these matters, but even if Europe's cold snap were to last for some time, I don't think that natural gas supply will be a big problem this year because European gas suppliers have planned and prepared very seriously," Elkind said.

By Murat Temizer

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr




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- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,316.74 Turkish liras
11.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Jan. 9

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,321.20 Turkish liras
10.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Jan. 8

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,230.63 Turkish liras
09.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Jan. 7

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,307 Turkish liras
08.01.2026 Natural Gas

TurkStream marks sixth year as key conduit for gas flows to Europe

- End of Ukraine transit leaves TurkStream as only pipeline route carrying Russian gas to Europe, boosting its strategic importance
09.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, Jan. 5

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,327 Turkish liras
07.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Jan. 4

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,330 Turkish liras
05.01.2026 Natural Gas

Türkiye, Azerbaijan agree on 33 bcm gas deal starting in 2029

- Alparslan Bayraktar says deal to provide Türkiye with 2.25 bcm per year from Absheron field over the contract period
07.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Jan. 3

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,329 Turkish liras
04.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Jan. 2

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,302.75 Turkish liras
03.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Jan. 1

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,319 Turkish liras
02.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Dec. 31

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,445.54 Turkish liras
02.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, Dec. 30

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,312.29 Turkish liras
31.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, Dec. 29

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,338.50 Turkish liras
30.12.2025 Natural Gas

Türkiye's BOTAS finalizes long-term LNG supply agreement with Australia's Woodside

- Woodside to deliver 0.5 million tonnes of LNG annually to Türkiye starting in 2030
03.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Dec. 28

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,338.13 Turkish liras
29.12.2025 Natural Gas

Lebanon, Egypt sign deal to meet Beirut’s natural gas needs

- Agreement seen as 1st step toward shifting power generation from fuel oil to gas, easing costs and environmental impact
01.01.2026 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Dec. 27

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,355.93 Turkish liras
28.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Dec. 26

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,377.43 Turkish liras
27.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Dec. 25

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,393.02 Turkish liras
26.12.2025 Natural Gas

Critical minerals dependence could spark tensions from 2026 onward, IEA chief warns

- 'Global effort to work with countries other than China and diversify supply sources presents an opportunity for Türkiye,' Fatih Birol tells Anadolu
30.12.2025 Natural Gas , Oil , Renewable

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, Dec. 22

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,505.73 Turkish liras
23.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Dec. 21

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,548.02 Turkish liras
23.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Dec. 20

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,453.98 Turkish liras
21.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Dec. 19

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,484.42 Turkish liras
20.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Dec. 18

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,524.88 Turkish liras
19.12.2025 Natural Gas

Egypt says gas deal with Israel ‘purely commercial without political dimensions’

- Egypt says its support for Palestinians ‘remains firm, and has not and will not change’
22.12.2025 Natural Gas , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Dec. 17

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,386 Turkish liras
18.12.2025 Natural Gas

Türkiye's gas imports up 3.9% in October

- Russia is Türkiye's largest natural gas supplier, providing 1.63 billion cubic meters, with Azerbaijan and Iran supplying 996 million cubic meters and 820 million cubic meters, respectively
19.12.2025 Natural Gas

Türkiye's LPG production up 2.89% in October

- LPG imports decrease by 17.01%, while exports fell by 28.28% in October, latest industry report reveals
17.12.2025 Lng/Lpg

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, Dec. 15

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,963.71 Turkish liras
16.12.2025 Natural Gas

Sri Lanka in talks with Moscow to build LNG terminal, modernize refinery to use Russian oil

- Sri Lanka wants to transition to clean energy due to climate change impact and LNG is one of options Colombo is considering, says Sri Lankan ambassador to Moscow
15.12.2025 Lng/Lpg

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Dec. 14

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,434.94 Turkish liras
15.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Dec. 13

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,583.03 Turkish liras
15.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Dec. 12

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,392.27 Turkish liras
14.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Dec. 11

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,476.10 Turkish liras
12.12.2025 Natural Gas

Israeli energy minister expects gas export deal with Egypt ‘within weeks’

- There was no immediate comment from Egyptian authorities
13.12.2025 Natural Gas , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Dec. 10

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,525.77 Turkish liras
11.12.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, Dec. 9

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 14,479.93 Turkish liras
10.12.2025 Natural Gas
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  • Gas shortages are not expected to affect Europe this year, despite cold weather forecast
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Gas shortages are not expected to affect Europe this year, despite cold weather forecast

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