The US administration is ramping up pressure on Iran after Tehran rejected a proposal calling for a complete halt to uranium enrichment, using energy policies - led by oil sanctions - to push the country toward concessions.
Washington's tightening sanctions regime and statements signaling the possibility of military action have once again fueled tensions across the Middle East.
Pressure on Tehran intensified during nuclear talks held last year between the US and Iran. While Washington put forward a proposal requiring a full suspension of uranium enrichment, Iranian officials rejected the offer, saying it crossed the country's "red lines."
As negotiations continued, US strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities effectively brought the diplomatic process to an end.
US President Donald Trump has extended warnings into 2026 that nuclear facilities could again be targeted if Iran resumes enrichment activities. Speaking on Jan. 22, Trump said, "If they try to do it again, they have to go to another area. We'll hit them there too, just as easily."
- Iran is target of Trump's sanctions push
Trump repeatedly criticized the Iran nuclear deal during his 2016 presidential campaign and, after taking office, emphasized that all options - including military action - remained on the table.
In February 2017, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on 13 individuals and 12 entities over their alleged involvement in Iran's ballistic missile program. In May 2018, Washington withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement and launched its "maximum pressure" campaign.
After returning to the office for a second term, Trump's first sanctions move again targeted Iran. This time, the administration focused on Chinese-based companies and trading networks accused of maintaining oil commerce with Tehran, aiming to curb Iran's energy revenues without imposing direct sanctions on the country itself.
Most recently, the US imposed a 25% additional tariff on countries trading with Iran on Jan. 13, followed on Jan. 23 by sanctions on vessels and companies alleged to have transported Iranian oil, citing the killing of protesters in Tehran.
- Hormuz Strait remains Iran's strongest leverage
US sanctions and Trump's warnings of potential military action have once again drawn attention to the Strait of Hormuz, widely seen as Iran’s most significant strategic leverage.
Around 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transit the strait each day, with the bulk flowing toward Asian markets, particularly China. Roughly 20% of the global liquefied natural gas trade also passes through the waterway.
While Iranian officials have periodically threatened to close the strait in response to US pressure, analysts say such rhetoric functions more as a strategic deterrent than a realistic option.
Experts argue that Washington's escalating economic measures are proving more effective than military threats in constraining Tehran's room for maneuver.
- Iran has no export route other than Hormuz
Iranian officials are focused on domestic challenges and economic contraction, leaving Tehran with little room for "adventurist military moves," Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Anadolu.
Dourian said there has been no disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's long-standing threats to close the waterway have not resurfaced.
"In any event, the Strait of Hormuz has never been closed, and the only thing Iran could do would be to disrupt shipping in the event of a US or Israeli attack," Dourian said.
"Iran has no alternative export route. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would ultimately hurt Iran more than anyone else," she added.
Dourian also noted that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on countries doing business with Iran have intensified pressure on the regime.
"Trump is building up a military force in the Gulf region, though for now an attack appears to be off the table. However, tariffs that deter buyers of Iranian crude - mostly in Asia - would have an even more devastating impact on the economy," Dourian concluded.
- US 'maximum pressure' policy takes effect
Iran's response to any potential US military action would largely depend on the scale and scope of such a strike, Yesar Al-Maleki, a Gulf analyst at the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), said.
Al-Maleki said Washington currently has more effective non-military tools at its disposal, with economic pressure increasingly shaping Tehran’s strategic calculations.
"President Trump has more effective non-kinetic options. Despite steady Iranian oil exports, 'maximum pressure' campaign is working. Tehran faces difficulties repatriating oil proceeds, and Chinese buyers have become more reluctant to receive oil on sanctioned tankers—meaning vessels are spending more time on the water in floating storage and the crude is sold at deeper discounts," Al-Maleki said.
Iranian oil nevertheless remains a key source of low-cost supply for independent Chinese refiners, and workarounds continue to support flows, according to Al-Maleki.
However, he added that additional US measures would further intensify economic pressure on Tehran, a strategy he sees as more effective for regime durability than direct military action.
"US strikes in June have, according to intelligence assessments, set back Iran's nuclear program but did not completely destroy its key facilities. For the US and Israel, the immediate priority is to constrain Iran's missile and nuclear enrichment capabilities while further weakening the regime," Al-Maleki concluded.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
