Recession concerns prevail in commodity market, precious metals rise

ISTANBUL

Recession concerns increased the selling pressure in the commodity market last week and the search for a safe haven continued to raise the prices of precious metals.

Uncertainties related to the central banks' monetary policies and concerns over economic activity had impact on the commodity market.

The slowdown in the economic activity and increasing oil prices caused concerns that the fight against inflation may be interrupted.

Effects of the hawkish US Federal Reserve steps are observed in the American economy.

While the signs of a slowdown in the labor market strengthened, the situation increased the concerns in the markets that the US economy might enter a recession.

Investors, who have been between inflation and recession concerns for a long time, seem to be less interested in risky assets after the risk of recession came to the fore.

While non-farm employment fell to 236,000 in the US, the number of applications for the first-time unemployment claim rose to 228,000 in the week ending April 1, exceeding expectations.

The US factory orders data fell above the forecasts in February. It also increased the recession concerns.

While the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index in the US remained below market expectations with 46.3 in March, the continuation of the contraction in the manufacturing industry was another factor that increased the recession concerns.

The US 10-year bond yield ended the week at 3.41%, down about seven basis points after seeing its lowest level since September 2022 with 3.26% last week.

Amid these developments, uncertainties regarding the Fed's actions for the next month remained strong.

Investors will focus on the inflation data to be released in the US this week.

- Commodity prices

The ounce price of gold reached the highest level since March 2022 with 2,032 last week, and ended the week with an increase of 1.9%.

The price of silver, which hit the highest level since April 2022, ended the week up by 3.6%, while the prices of platinum and palladium rose by 1.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

OPEC and OPEC+'s decisions to cut oil production, increasing oil demand in China and estimated fall in US crude oil stocks increased oil prices.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices dropped over diminishing demand amid warmer weather conditions.

Slowdown in economic activity also increased demand concerns for base metals.

Copper lost by 1.3%, lead 1.3%, aluminum 2.9%, nickel 1.7%, and zinc 4.5% last week.

Recession concerns also negatively affected agricultural commodities.

Prices of wheat, corn, soybean, and rice dropped by 2.4%, 2.6%, 0.8%, and 4.5%, respectively.

Testing the highest level since October 2016 at $0.2324, sugar rose by 4.3% and coffee 8.1%, while cotton fell by 2.1% and cocoa was down by 2.4%.

*Writing by Gokhan Ergocun