By Murat Temizer
ANKARA
Russia's Turkish Stream gas pipeline project through Turkey has been put firmly back on the agenda following the meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in St. Petersburg where energy was discussed.
One line of the Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline project can be accomplished, but more than one line will depend on the improvement in Russia-EU relations, according to Professor Jonathan Stern, chairman of the Natural Gas Research Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency following the meeting between Erdogan and Putin, Stern asserted that one line of the Turkish Stream project serving Turkey would be feasible.
"Two lines would require regulatory agreement with the EU with a pipeline crossing an EU border; this was the problem with the [redundant] South Stream project and has never been resolved," he said.
In remarks made during a joint news conference with Putin in St. Petersburg following their meeting, Erdogan said that Turkey and Russia's cooperation will accelerate in the energy sector.
Putin said that Turkey has already taken concrete steps to realize the Turkish Stream project to meet its own needs. He added that the second phase to carry natural gas to Europe should be discussed with European authorities.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said after the meeting that the Turkish Stream may start in 2019 with the possibility of having the intergovernmental agreement signed by this October.
"For one line, these dates are possible but any delay to the October date would create problems for the 2019 completion," Stern said, adding that from a market point of view, it makes more sense for the Russians to build one line of the Turkish Stream and one line following the planned but cancelled route of the South Stream project.
"But, as I said before, this depends very much on regulatory agreement between Russia and the EU. If this proves impossible or takes a long time, then one line of the Turkish Stream is all that can be built," he stressed.
- Project more important for Russia than Turkey
Michael Camarda, the associate director of Energy Politics in Eurasia Masters' Program at the European University at Saint Petersburg in Russia told Anadolu Agency that the Turkish Stream project is far more important for Russia than it is for Turkey.
"I have no doubt Russia wants to build this primarily as another way around Ukraine for its gas to Europe, not so much to expand its Turkish market," Camarda said.
Since the July 15 failed coup in Turkey, Ankara has been both looking to restore relations with its old partners, as in Russia, as well as developing new ones, according to Camarda.
"Pipelines are more permanent than good relations. Project financing, and whether this pipeline's gas will be allowed to cross into Europe, are two big factors that will affect the speed of its construction," Camarda said.
He advised that the initial proposed capacity for the Turkish Stream was 63 billion cubic meters (bcm) but this was reduced to 32 bcm last fall. Russia's Gazprom believed that with the extension of the Nord Stream project - the Nord-Stream II - with a subsea Baltic pipeline to its biggest single client Germany, they would reduce the amount of gas needed for the Turkish Stream.
"Russia looks at its overall position in Europe when making these decisions. I think the Nord Stream II is a lot more politically viable as a project right now in Brussels than the Turkish Stream is, as Germany supports it, albeit with conditions," he noted.
Putin said on Tuesday that Russia has initially considered the Turkish Stream not as an alternative to the South Stream but "as an opportunity to expand our cooperation in the area of gas supplied both with Europe and with Turkey."
Camarda contended that if the Turkish Stream is realized, then it will merely replace the South Stream project.
"If the Turkish Stream is built, then Russia will logically insist on a much cheaper gas connector to the EU rather than build an entirely new subsea trans-Black Sea pipeline," he said
"Let us remember that the EU's gas growth is very small, and with global LNG set to boom in the next five years, Russia wants to get pipelines into Europe and lock in contracts if it can. This will secure its market share against the coming LNG tide, as pipeline gas is generally cheaper than LNG," Camarda said
Erdogan declared on Tuesday that the Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline would now be complete "as fast as possible."
Announced by Putin in December 2014, the pipeline will carry Russian gas via the Black Sea and Turkey to southeastern Europe. The project was shelved following the jet crisis between Russia and Turkey last November.
