Mücahithan Avcıoğlu
14 October 2025•Update: 15 October 2025
- US, euro area economies expected to grow more than previous forecast, while forecast for Chinese economy kept stable
- Türkiye's economy expected to grow 3.5% in 2025, and 3.7% in 2026, up from previous forecast
ISTANBUL
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from 3%, while keeping it stable at 3.1% for 2026.
An IMF report said that despite the forecast's increase from the previous report, global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 amid "policy shifts and complex forces."
"In April, the United States shook global trade norms by announcing sweeping tariffs. Given the complexity and fluidity of the moment, our April report offered a range of estimates for the growth downgrade, from modest to significant, depending on the ultimate severity of the trade shock," it said.
The fund stated that trade policy uncertainty remains high due to the lack of clear, transparent, and lasting agreements among trading partners, and that the focus is shifting from the final tariff level to its impact on prices, investment, and consumption.
Noting that the impact of more protectionist trade measures on economic activity and prices has thus far been limited, it said growth remained resilient in the first half of the year.
The report said that there are increasing signs that the negative impacts of protectionist measures are beginning to be felt, and that trade policy uncertainty is expected to remain high throughout 2025 and 2026.
US, eurozone economies expected to grow more
The forecast for the US economic growth was raised from 1.9% to 2% this year and from 2% to 2.1% for 2026.
For the eurozone economy, the forecast was also raised from 1% to 1.2% this year, while for next year it was revised down from 1.2% to 1.1%. Germany's growth forecast was raised to 0.2% for this year and was kept stable at 0.9% for 2026.
The UK economy's growth forecast was raised from 1.2% to 1.3% this year while it was lowered from 1.4% to 1.3% next year.
Chinese economy expected to grow 4.8% this year
Within the emerging economies group, the growth forecast for the Chinese economy remained at 4.8% this year and 4.2% next year.
The Indian economy's growth forecast for this year was raised to 6.6%, and was lowered to 6.2% next year.
Türkiye's economic growth forecast was raised to 3.5% in 2025 and to 3.7% next year.
The report stated that the average inflation forecast for Türkiye was 34.9% for this year and 24.7% for next year, while the unemployment rate expectations are 8.3% for this year and next year.
