Global oil output rises by 0.74% in November 2021

By Firdevs Yuksel

ISTANBUL

Global oil supply in November increased by 0.88 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous month to average 98.28 million bpd, marking a 5.62 million bpd year-on-year increase (y-o-y), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Monday.

The organization's monthly oil market report shows that OPEC crude oil production averaged 27.72 million bpd in November 2021, higher by 0.29 million bpd month-on-month (m-o-m). Crude oil output increased mainly in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria, while production in Angola, Libya and Congo declined.

Production in Saudi Arabia increased by 101,000 bpd to nearly 9.87 million bpd, by 91,000 bpd to 4.24 million bpd in Iraq and by 85,000 bpd to 1.42 million bpd in Nigeria.

Meanwhile, oil output in Angola decreased by 38,000 bpd to 1.08 million bpd, in Libya by 15,000 bpd to around 1.1 million bpd and in Congo by 14,000 bpd to 261,000 bpd.

The share of OPEC crude out of total global production remains unchanged at 28.2% in November compared with the previous month.

Non-OPEC liquids production, including OPEC natural gas liquids, increased in November by 0.59 million bpd compared with the previous month to average 70.56 million bpd, higher by 3.03 million bpd y-o-y.

"Preliminary increases in production in November were driven by the non-OECD, particularly Latin America, while output is likely to increase in the OECD by 0.09 million bpd m-o-m, mainly from OECD Europe," the report said.

- Oil demand forecasts remain unchanged

The OPEC kept its global oil demand forecast for 2021 unchanged compared to last month's assessment with a growth of 5.7 million bpd.

"However, oil demand was adjusted higher in 1H21, amid better-than-anticipated transportation fuel consumption in OECD, offset by a downwardly-revised estimate for 3Q21 due to increased COVID-19 cases and softer industrial production in China, as well as easing transportation fuel recovery in India," the agency said.

According to the report, oil demand in the fourth quarter was adjusted slightly lower, mainly to account for COVID-19 containment measures in Europe and the potential impact of the new omicron COVID-19 variant.

The demand growth for 2022 was also kept unchanged at 4.2 million bpd.

"Indeed, some of the recovery previously expected in 4Q21 is now shifted to 1Q22, followed by a more steady recovery throughout 2H22," OPEC said.

"The impact of the new Omicron variant is expected to be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage COVID-19 and its related challenges. This is in addition to a steady economic outlook in both the advanced and emerging economies," the report said.

Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 96.5 million bpd on an annualized basis in 2021 and 100.6 million bpd in 2022.