ANKARA
The novel coronavirus outbreak is similar to other pandemics in history in terms of its origins, the reactions of societies and individuals and possible social and economic outcomes, according to experts.
Nukhet Varlik, a history professor at Rutgers University in the U.S., told Anadolu Agency that the coronavirus, officially known as COVID-19, shows similarities to many other pandemics in history in terms of its origins, global spread, and social response.
“Like most other infectious diseases, it is transmitted from wild animals to humans,” Varlik said, adding it is spreading faster than previous pandemics due to its ability to travel quickly through the air.
“In terms of social responses, we also observe similarities to many past pandemics. There is a broad spectrum of human responses in times of pandemics including denial, panic, flight, racism, xenophobia, spreading of false rumors, profiteering, and other opportunistic behaviors, businesses closing and even abandoning the sick to die alone, but also empathy, altruism, caring and helping others," she said.
The virus emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December and has spread to more than 168 countries and territories. The World Health Organization has declared the outbreak a pandemic.
Varlik emphasized that the death toll from the virus remains relatively low worldwide and cannot be compared remotely to some of the most catastrophic pandemics in history which killed tens of millions of people.
"The biggest pandemic known in human history was the Black Death of the mid-14th century that killed at least 30% to 50% of the population.
“The impact was so profound and lasted over such a long time that it is considered one of the turning points in human history. COVID-19 is nothing of that sort," she said.
Varlik said the positive outcome of the virus is loud and clear, adding: “COVID-19 is telling us that we need to change how we live and work.”
"We simply need to consume less, travel less; we need to slow down. And we know that nature responds to it very quickly.”
There are more than 381,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide and the death toll is over 16,500, according to data compiled by U.S.-based Johns Hopkins University.
China, Italy, Iran, and Spain continue to be the countries hardest-hit.
Global shutdown not possible due to economic, societal behaviors
A global shutdown to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus outbreak is not expected as it is not possible due to mainly economic and social reasons, Abdulkerim Sonmez, an associate professor at Hacettepe University in the Turkish capital Ankara, told Anadolu Agency.
“The world is not going towards a global shutdown. There is no way to do it,” Sonmez said, adding the current outbreak is no different from the ones the world has faced before.
It was easier to take quarantine measures without interruption to economic and social life throughout a country in previous centuries when an outbreak emerged.
“However, since there was no accumulation of information about the spread of the outbreaks as today, epidemics continued to be transmitted to other areas, especially in caravan and port trade areas,” Sonmez said.
“Since the world has become globalized, the mobility of people, goods, and transportation has increased at an unprecedented rate and the ability of each country to sustain its economic life depends on this mobility. A shutdown means roughly returning to the situation in the early 18th century, which no country can handle,” he added.
Stressing that the current outbreak is temporary, Sonmez said: “While the main cause of the problem was an epidemic that could be kept in its original place or at home with small and determined measures to be taken at the beginning, it has now turned into a quarantine obligation that should be applied temporarily but decisively on a global scale.”
He went on to say that new global cooperation may enable immediate and appropriate responses to pandemics on a global scale, which is impossible to sustain in a closed society.
“The simplest way for countries to protect and improve their welfare depends on going one step ahead in their competitions, however, the pandemic we face today shows that it also depends on being able to trade with each other, just as other teams have to be present in to become a champion in a football league,” Sonmez said.
He underscored that it is reasonable that people could not tolerate staying in their homes for a week or two.
“More than half of the world's population now lives in cities, works outside the home, and therefore they are not practical with what they will do in such a situation, how they can spend their time with meaningful activities.
“This also indicates that people culturally and socially will have a hard time living in a closed society when the outbreak ends. So I think that even if the citizens will stay home and self-quarantined for a short time, if necessary, at the country level or globally, they will put more pressure on governments to take measures and to eliminate the need for temporary shutdowns on a global scale,” he added.
Global economy to suffer major blow
Enver Erkan, an economist at a special investment company based in Istanbul, said that since the spread of the disease cannot be controlled and because the quarantine measures are taken as strictly as possible, the most obvious impacts will occur in the economy.
"At this point, the current estimates show that the global economy is in shrink and that the U.S. economy is expected to shrink up to 10% to 30% in this framework," Erkan said.
There will "clearly" be an economic shrinkage in industries, Erkan said, adding the industries unable to generate cash will have a hard time making payments, including salaries, taxes, and bills.
Therefore, its reflection on individuals will be a decline in income and loss of jobs will eventually lead to a deadlock in the global economy, he said.
"It is very difficult to create a numerical expectation regarding the economy because the unusual reasons [coronavirus] that have occurred have now rendered economic models inoperable for economists," Erkan said.
He went on to say that it is not possible to compare the current coronavirus crisis with a health crisis or economic crisis that had happened before.
“We are not at a point to compare the current coronavirus crisis with a health crisis before because we are not at a point to compare its dimensions with very different economic crises,” he said.
Erkan emphasized that the current global economy would be worse than after the Lehman Brothers crisis, referring to the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. was holding over $600 billion in assets.
He emphasized that the pandemic is nothing that we are used to, therefore, there has already been a decrease in production and so the demand.
