Commodity markets saw slight upward trend last week

ISTANBUL

Commodity markets saw an upward trend last week as macroeconomic data released in the US supported expectations that the Fed would begin cutting interest rates in the first half of 2024.

The data show a continued slowdown in the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which the Fed considers an inflation indicator, analysts say.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 47.8 in February, below market expectations, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell 2.1 points to 76.9 month-on-month.

The data strengthened expectations that the Fed will loosen monetary policy.

Demand for gold, silver on rise

The increase in copper production in Chile caused copper prices to decline, whereas supply concerns led to an increase in nickel prices.

The global nickel market could face a surprise shortfall in 2024 if approval for mining operations in Indonesia is restricted, according to Macquarie Group, an Australia-based financial services and infrastructure asset management company.

Copper and lead fell 0.7% and 2.9%, respectively, while aluminum increased 2.6%, nickel 1%, and zinc 0.5%.

Concerning precious metals, gold soared 2.3%, silver 0.9%, whereas platinum declined 1.7%, and palladium 2.1%.

Energy group sees sharp rises

Expectations for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to extend the production cut until the second quarter of 2024 influenced Brent oil prices to increase.

In Nov. 2022, the OPEC+ group announced that it would cut production by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), with an additional 1.6 million bpd cut as of May 2023.

In addition, nine OPEC+ member countries have made voluntary cuts of varying amounts since July 2023.

In a statement issued in early February, the group confirmed that it would continue its policy of reducing oil production until April 3.

Greece's decision to join the EU's Aspides mission in the Red Sea has raised concerns that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will spread to other regions, supporting the upward movement of Brent crude oil prices.

Natural gas prices rose due to expectations of a decline in production.

In light of these developments, the price of Brent crude oil rose 2.9%, and natural gas traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased 14.5%

The agricultural group benefited from rising demand expectations as the US dollar index fell.

World corn production estimates fell month-on-month, causing prices to rise.

Given these changes, the price of wheat traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plummeted 1.8%, and rice 2.2%, while corn hiked 2.7%, and soybeans 0.7%.

Declining physical deliveries in sugar futures, which triggered concerns over demand, led to a depreciation in its prices.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over cotton supply caused prices to rise.

At the same time, cocoa prices hit a historic high of $6,648 per ton.

The price of cotton traded on the Intercontinental Exchange surged by 6.5%, cocoa by 1.1%, and coffee by 1.7%, while sugar fell by 3.8%.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim