ISTANBUL
Cocoa prices have fallen by more than 30% in 2025, reversing the sharp gains seen in global markets last year. After hitting record highs, the commodity has been on a downward trend this year.
The price per ton of cocoa ended 2024 with a 178.2% surge, closing at $11,675 after reaching an all-time high of $12,931. However, in 2025, prices dropped 33% year-on-year, falling below $8,000 per ton.
Last year’s record highs were driven by supply concerns, as adverse weather conditions in West Africa and declining global stocks pushed prices up. Weak production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s top cocoa producers, played a major role in tightening supply.
Exporters in the Ivory Coast rejected cocoa beans due to quality issues, raising fears of a global supply shortage. Additionally, a decline in Ivorian cocoa harvests contributed to the price surge. Major cocoa processing factories in the Ivory Coast and Ghana either reduced or halted production due to high seed costs, exacerbating supply constraints.
Unfavorable weather conditions, including prolonged drought, heavy rains, and plant diseases such as the cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV), further disrupted supply.
Restrictions on cocoa sales from the Ivory Coast intensified concerns, as the country’s regulator, Conseil du Cafe-Cacao, barred companies and exporters without local processing facilities from purchasing cocoa beans.
Harmattan winds in West Africa also threatened the harvest, reducing cocoa deliveries from the Ivory Coast. Meanwhile, allegations that Ghanaian farmers were smuggling cocoa beans from neighboring countries to sell at higher prices contributed to the price surge.
Additionally, inadequate rainfall and increased competition from small chocolate companies for cocoa supplies pushed prices higher.
However, cocoa demand weakened as prices rose significantly above production costs. Expectations of a renewed oversupply also contributed to the recent price decline. The commodity faced additional pressure as Nigeria increased its cocoa exports, easing supply concerns.
Executives from major chocolate manufacturers Hershey and Mondelez cautioned that elevated prices were affecting demand, further pushing prices downward.
Analysts predict that cocoa production will increase, reducing the supply deficit. They also view last year’s record highs as temporary.
Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodity expert, told Anadolu that drought conditions in West Africa played a significant role in last year’s price surge.
"There were concerns over short-term supply but the next season's production forecasts were above last year's, which showed that even if there were to be upward movements, a potential for a pullback in prices in the medium and long term and more sales overweighed the estimates," he said.
"Last year, decline in crop yields in West Africa, the Ivory Coast, and Ghana – the biggest producers – affected cocoa prices worldwide, but production forecasts are higher for next season, expecting an increase," he added. "Even if the short-term prices are up, the general trend is to sell."
Oran van Dort, a commodity analyst at Rabobank, told Anadolu that supply-side issues were a key factor in last year’s price rally, as cocoa futures struggled with low liquidity.
Low fertilizer use, plant diseases, adverse weather conditions, and a shift among West African farmers from cocoa farming to gold mining and rubber production contributed to supply challenges.
"Prices at the end of 2024 were particularly high (because of) Increased speculative activity – speculators kept expanding their net long position in futures, industry exiting the market, creating upward price pressure by going gross long to close gross shorts, dry weather throughout 2024 and an early start to the harmattan period created significant concern for crop development, (and an) extremely bullish (and somewhat unjust) narrative surrounding the cocoa market, and an increase in open stated deficit scenario expectations for 24/25," he said.
"Since then, we have had significant bearish developments," he noted.
"Speculators have exited the market drastically, improved weather – since Jan. 24th, rain has returned to West Africa and the 30-day sum is similar to that of prior years, drastically reducing many of those dry weather concerns."
"The ICCO has stated a surplus for the 24/25 season to be 142,000 metric tons, putting many of these supposed deficit scenarios into question, (while) all major chocolate confectioners have stated in their earnings adjustment calls that demand destruction is prevalent, as they have been increasing the prices of their products, utilizing less cocoa, and might have to further increase prices, etc," he added.
