Water becomes focus of India, Pakistan brinkmanship

By Aamir Latif

KARACHI, Pakistan

With Pakistan and India's volatile relations once again at a low after a deadly attack on Indian soldiers in Indian-held Kashmir, the two nuclear-powered neighbors have in recent days made water the focus of their conflict.

Reports of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi considering scrapping a decades-long water sharing treaty yesterday led to Pakistan warning that such a step would equate to a declaration of war.

“India cannot scrap the Indus Water Treat (IWT) unilaterally. If it does that, then Pakistan is also preparing [counter-measures],” Pakistan’s foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz told parliament on Tuesday.

“If India stops Pakistan’s water, it will not only undermine India’s standing internationally but also give a good reason to China to stop its water,” Aziz said, referring to an ongoing water dispute between India and China over the latter’s construction of dams and proposed diversion of the Brahmaputra River, which originates in Tibet and provides a third of India’s needs for irrigation.

The 1960 World Bank-brokered water treaty allocated three eastern rivers to India and three western rivers to Pakistan.

An irate New Delhi, according to Indian media, has already decided to suspend the annual Indus Water Commission talks until “Pakistan-sponsored terror in India ends."

Tensions have been high since the Kashmir attack which saw 18 Indian soldiers killed by militants, with senior figures in India accusing Pakistan of sponsoring the attackers and on the Indian newspaper The Hindu reported Modi had discussed ending the water deal to mount pressure after the attack.

On Tuesday, Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar called on Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit in New Delhi, where he presented “proof of cross-border origins of Uri attack.”

But while Modi reportedly warned "blood and water can’t flow together", Indian security researcher Bharat Karnad, from the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi told Anadolu Agency the deal will not be ended.

"That is not [on the] cards. If India did that the ramifications will be huge...scrapping would be a major thing to do because under international law a country which is denied water that is central to its existence, can go to war.”

– Kashmir trade resumes

Despite the heightened tensions trade over the Line of Control (LoC), which divides Kashmir into Pakistan and India-controlled territories, resumed Wednesday after a 10-week suspension.

Farooq Ahmad Shah, Custodian of the Trade Facilitation Centre in Salamabad, said 12 truckloads from Indian-held Kashmir had crossed to the Pakistani side and another truck had come the other way.

Cross-LoC started in October 2008 for a limited number of items and was seen as one of the most reconciliatory Kashmir-specific measures taken by either side in attempts to repair their fraught relationship.

Trade has however occasionally been suspended, with the most recent freeze following a period of clashes between Kashmiris and Indian forces in which 87 civilians have been shot dead and a strict curfew was imposed.