Monsoon dread in India as US cuts dent critical weather monitoring

‘Without NOAA’s continued support, gaps in data could emerge, reducing forecast accuracy and the ability to track the rapid oceanic changes that often precede extreme weather,’ warns climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll

‘Inaccurate forecasts can lead to poor decisions, ineffective planning and significant losses,’ says Earth scientist Raghu Murtugudde


NEW DELHI

The Trump administration’s sweeping cuts to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have sparked concern thousands of miles away in India, where scientists fear a major dent in the country’s weather tracking capabilities.

In late February, some 880 workers were laid off from the NOAA, the primary US government agency responsible for climate and weather forecasting, which provides essential data that helps countries like India respond effectively to weather changes.

With India lacking comprehensive satellite coverage beyond the Indian Ocean, NOAA’s data becomes vital for cyclone tracking, monsoon prediction, and monitoring extreme weather events.

Experts warn that reduced NOAA support could compromise not only India’s forecasting abilities but global weather predictions as a whole, posing risks for preparedness and climate response.

“NOAA’s ocean monitoring buoys and satellites collect the largest amount of data. Even in the Indian Ocean, NOAA contributes to 40-50% of the ocean observations,” Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, told Anadolu.

“Cyclone tracking, monsoon prediction and monitoring extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods and droughts rely heavily on NOAA’s data. Without NOAA’s continued support, gaps in data could emerge, reducing forecast accuracy and the ability to track the rapid oceanic changes that often precede extreme weather.”

Before 2009, India mainly used atmospheric data for monsoon forecasting – crucial for agriculture, economic stability, and inflation control – but NOAA’s oceanic data has since become essential.

“Our monsoon forecast models are built on NOAA’s model,” said Raghu Murtugudde, an Earth scientist and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland.

Murtugudde explained that sophisticated climate models integrate oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial data, requiring powerful supercomputers to produce reliable forecasts.



Long-term effects

Beyond the immediate problems, experts say reduced NOAA data availability could have broader consequences for India and the world.

“Long-term climate monitoring, essential for understanding how the Indian Ocean is warming and how monsoon patterns are shifting, depends on consistent, high-quality data from NOAA’s observational network,” Koll warned.

“Disruptions could hinder national forecasting efforts and regional climate change research.”

He emphasized that the loss of NOAA data will have a particularly negative impact on efforts to track extreme weather like cyclones.

“Cyclones draw their energy from warm ocean waters. NOAA’s buoys – alongside those maintained by India and other nations – continuously monitor ocean temperatures and other critical parameters,” Koll explained.

“A gap in these observations could lead to errors in forecasting, potentially underestimating a cyclone’s strength or misjudging its path, both of which can be catastrophic for India’s densely populated coastline.”

Concerns over the NOAA cuts have also come from across the Indian political spectrum.

“We are worried. If NOAA reduces observations, there will be implications on weather forecasts. When ocean observations reduce, there is less data to assimilate. Hence, predictability will reduce,” M. Ravichandran, secretary of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, told local news agency PTI earlier this month.

The opposition Congress party, meanwhile, has called for India to strengthen its own research capabilities, criticizing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government for prioritizing trade deals over long-term weather forecasting stability.

Experts have also underscored the economic and social importance of accurate monsoon predictions. As the monsoon provides India with 70% of its annual rainfall, effective forecasts are critical for farming, replenishing groundwater, boosting rural prosperity, and increasing hydropower production.

“Inaccurate forecasts can lead to poor decisions, ineffective planning and significant losses,” said Murtugudde.



‘Consequences for all’

Originally established to improve maritime navigation, NOAA has evolved into a critical player in global climate monitoring and storm warnings.

However, in 2023, the influential American think tank Heritage Foundation recommended downsizing NOAA, criticizing its growth and perceived climate change advocacy. These recommendations influenced the recent budget cuts and workforce reductions.

Under President Trump, the US has taken several more regressive steps in terms of environmental policies, including withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, drawing criticism globally.

Climate activists in India also fear that Trump’s environmental decisions could hinder their work.

“Decisions like these by the Trump administration will definitely impact the work of independent researchers and climate campaigners like myself,” said Ruhie Kumar, an Indian climate campaigner.

“We rely on open-source data available on platforms like Earth Nullschool, which draws heavily from NOAA. In the absence of data, planning campaigns would be a challenge for citizen-led work.”

Earth Nullschool, a platform that offers real-time global weather insights, recently warned that many of its climate datasets, derived from NOAA’s supercomputers, are at risk of going offline.

“Some datasets have no substitute if they go offline,” it said in a statement, urging the public, particularly in the US, to speak out on the issue.

Koll emphasized that the current level of danger posed by climate change demands stronger international cooperation.

“Climate change is a shared challenge, and weakening a key pillar of global observations could set us back at a time when we need better predictions more than ever,” he said.

Murtugudde echoed the warning and asserted that Trump’s “stance on climate and weather funding is crucial” for global collaboration.

“Global cooperation benefits all parties, but if President Trump does not agree … there will be consequences for all involved,” the expert added.