- Expert say practical impact may be limited since Gen. Hlaing rarely travels, but countries could feel pressure to avoid any visit by a person wanted by the ICC
- Warrant would add another risk for Hlaing ‘should he be removed from his position or his regime fall,’ says Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group
ISTANBUL
The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) recent request for an arrest warrant against Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing, experts believe, is a symbolic step towards accountability for the persecution of the Rohingya community.
The warrant, sought by ICC prosecutor Karim Khan, marks the first time a high-ranking Myanmar official faces potential legal action for the brutal 2017 crackdown that forced approximately 750,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh to escape what the US and various rights groups have termed a genocide by the Myanmar military.
While ICC judges are yet to decide on issuing the warrant, experts anticipate it will be granted, as rejecting the request would be an unprecedented move for the court.
“It is definitely symbolically important. It is another step towards accountability for the horrors perpetrated against the Rohingya, and many will likely take encouragement from the ICC’s move,” David Scott Mathieson, an independent analyst based in Myanmar, said in an interview with Anadolu.
Richard Horsey, senior adviser on Myanmar at the International Crisis Group, also emphasized the significance of holding Hlaing accountable.
“For the Rohingya and all of Myanmar, (this shows) that the prosecutor has found him (Hlaing) criminally liable for crimes against humanity, at a time when he is carrying out further such crimes against the people of Myanmar,” Horsey said in comments to Anadolu.
Limited practical impact
Despite its symbolic weight, analysts agree the warrant’s practical implications may be limited.
Mathieson pointed out that Hlaing does not travel to many countries, so he has little reason to fear arrest even if the ICC puts out a warrant.
However, he noted the request might unsettle Hlaing, who has been “guilty of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya for many years” and other war crimes across Myanmar since the February 2021 coup.
Horsey echoed these views: “Min Aung Hlaing rarely travels, and when he does, it is generally not to countries that are members of the court, or countries that would assist the court.
“Nevertheless, the risk of arrest or creating a diplomatic incident is something that Hlaing will have to weigh and consider before travelling in the future.”
For other countries, while they may not be willing to arrest the Myanmar military leader, they could feel that a visit from Hlaing would be undesirable as it would put them in a delicate diplomatic situation.
Geopolitical and internal ramifications
The arrest warrant request has already drawn reactions from Myanmar’s key allies, with neighboring China having officially criticized the move, Mathieson said.
“Seeing as Myanmar’s other military patron, Russia, has their leader under indictment by the ICC, there likely won’t be much pressure placed on the State Administrative Council (SAC),” he said, using the official term for the Myanmar junta.
The West may welcome this application, but there would be “a great deal of hypocritical geopolitical posturing,” Mathieson said, referencing criticism from some states of the ICC’s recent warrants for Israeli leaders.
Domestically, Mathieson said it remains too early to predict the impact, but he believes there would be little immediate effect.
“It’s too early to determine how much the application may adversely affect the SAC’s plans to hold elections in late 2025 and attempt a transition to a new administration, but this will probably be minor,” he said.
He suggested that any collapse of the regime would likely result from internal military and economic dynamics, rather than international legal actions.
“However, the regime looks quite redoubtable, despite its sizable battlefield losses from the armed revolutionaries and being despised by much of the population,” he added.
The rest of the military, he continued, is equally culpable of war crimes and will likely rally around Hlaing for their own survival.
This effort might perturb the military leadership because they do not fully understand how international justice works, he said.
“As for any guilty consciences among them, I don’t think they have any. Atrocity crimes are part of the military’s character – they know how brutal and guilty they are,” he asserted.
Horsey highlighted another potential long-term impact of the warrant, specifically in the risk it poses to Hlaing “should he be removed from his position or his regime fall.”
“It could also impact the contours of any future deal with his opponents, either giving him another reason to fight to the end, or further incentive to insist on immunity as part of any agreement,” said the analyst.
