China's marriage rate hits record low in 2024, birth decline expected

ISTANBUL

China recorded its lowest number of marriages in 2024 since 1980, according to a report on Monday.

Only 6.1 million couples got married, marking a 20.5% decline from 2023, while divorce rates rose by 1.1%, according to the South China Morning Post, citing China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs.

The significant drop suggests a likely decline in the birth rate in 2025.

"Given that the vast majority of births in China occur within marriage … the sharp decline in marriage registrations in 2024 is a clear indicator that the birth rate will continue to drop in 2025,” said independent demographer He Yafu, as quoted by the media outlet.

China’s demographic challenges are exacerbated by persistently low birth rates, driven by a shrinking number of women of childbearing age and young people delaying marriage and parenthood due to social and economic pressures.

Although the country saw a slight rise in births and marriage registrations in 2024, experts consider it an outlier, predicting that the downward trend will persist in the coming years.

The birth rate was 6.77 per 1,000 people in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Beijing has implemented policies to counter the decline in marriage and birth rates, but they have yet to show significant effects.

China's population stood at 1.4 billion in 2024, marking the third consecutive annual decline since 2021.