- Dhaka’s diplomatic recalibration marks a cautious shift toward China and Pakistan, tenser ties with India, and warmer but uncertain relations with the US, say analysts
- ‘Given the dramatic shift in Bangladesh’s relationship with India, Beijing understands there is a strategic opening in Dhaka that wasn’t there before,’ says Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group
- The interim Bangladeshi government is pursuing a ‘more balanced foreign policy between China and India,’ says Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University
- Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations says it is unlikely that Bangladesh will align itself in ‘a strategic bloc’ with China and Pakistan
ISTANBUL
A year after the end of Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, is pursuing a carefully recalibrated foreign policy that reflects both opportunity and caution in a changing regional landscape, according to analysts.
“I see the interim government’s foreign policy as one of rebalancing,” Thomas Kean, a senior consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh with the International Crisis Group, told Anadolu.
Under Hasina, he explained, Bangladesh maintained a strong alignment with India, while its relationship with the US soured, largely due to widespread concerns over human rights abuses.
That close association with New Delhi also constrained Bangladesh’s ability to engage China more deeply, while ties with Pakistan remained virtually dormant.
“However, India seems to have decided not to normalize relations with the interim government,” Kean added. “This has had the effect of encouraging Bangladesh to work more closely with India's traditional rivals, China and Pakistan, than might otherwise have been the case.”
Lin Minwang, professor and deputy director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, echoed this view. “Clearly, the caretaker government of Bangladesh has undertaken a substantial recalibration of its foreign policy, the most significant of which is moving away from its erstwhile approach of unwavering proximity to India.”
However, Mubashar Hasan, an adjunct research fellow at Western Sydney University’s Humanitarian and Development Research Initiative, sees continuity rather than a sharp shift.
“There is a lot of movement toward China, but the Chinese were also close to Hasina,” he said.
The one area of change, he added, has been the strain on ties with India and Dhaka moving closer to Pakistan compared to how things were under Hasina.
Hasina fled to India on Aug. 5, 2024 as a student-led uprising brought down her government. She now faces – and denies – charges of crimes against humanity for allegedly ordering a brutal crackdown on protesters that left more than 1,400 dead.
Strengthening ties with China
In March, Yunus made his first state visit to China, diverging from the tradition of prioritizing India. He reportedly secured $2.1 billion (€1.8 billion) in Chinese investments, loans, and grants aimed at bolstering Bangladesh’s economy and infrastructure.
“Certainly, Bangladesh and China are strengthening ties,” Kean said.
“Given the dramatic shift in Bangladesh’s relationship with India, Beijing understands there is a strategic opening in Dhaka that wasn’t there before.”
Yunus’ interim government, he said, remains “willing to work with all willing partners to achieve their agenda, and gain diplomatic and economic support.”
Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that although Hasina maintained good relations with Beijing, “Yunus has made those ties with Beijing much stronger.”
Hasan also emphasized that China’s “long-term interest in Bangladesh.”
“It understands that Bangladesh needs development funds ... and there is a demand for infrastructure development,” he said, adding that Beijing is also a partner that has a policy of non-interference in domestic affairs.
Fractured relationship with India
The historically close ties between Dhaka and New Delhi have deteriorated dramatically, and analysts agree they are at their lowest point in years.
“Both India and Bangladesh need to find a way to work together constructively,” Kean said.
“I expect India will look to reset after the elections in Bangladesh and turn over a new leaf with an elected government. That should get relations back onto more of an even keel – not as close as they were under Hasina, but nevertheless more friendly than they are now,” he added.
Hasan pointed to India’s perceived past involvement in Bangladesh’s internal affairs, saying, “In the eyes of public, India heavily invested in Bangladesh's authoritarianism,” including alleged human rights abuses.
He argued that Yunus’ interim government, while avoiding antagonism, is moving toward a more “normal” relationship with India.
Lin described the new government’s approach as a “more balanced foreign policy between China and India,” contrasting it with Hasina’s “India-first” diplomacy, which he called “highly detrimental to Bangladesh’s national interests.”
Ties with US and shift to a strategic bloc
Bangladesh’s relations with Washington appear to have improved under Yunus, according to experts.
“Clearly, the interim government looks more favorably towards Washington than Sheikh Hasina,” Kean said, citing the Democratic administration’s support and Yunus’ longstanding ties with key US figures.
Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest garment exporter, enjoys a strong trade relationship with the US, with bilateral goods trade reaching $10.6 billion in 2024. Still, experts warn of unpredictability under the Trump administration.
“They have secured ‘only’ a 20% tariff,” said Kean, “which is comparable to rival countries and less than the 25% tariff that the Trump administration placed on India.”
That outcome, he added, brought “a huge sigh of relief in Dhaka.”
Hasan also noted the importance of Yunus’ personal connections in Washington, saying that the current US government is not that hostile to Bangladesh.
Despite speculation, analysts say there is little evidence of Bangladesh aligning itself in a strategic bloc with China and Pakistan.
“I don’t think Bangladesh is going to form a strategic bloc at this point,” said Kurlantzick. “They don’t even have a non-interim government that really would make such major decisions.”
Kean agreed, noting that such an alignment would cross a “red line” for India. Instead, he sees current moves as a strategic rebalancing in response to “hostile sentiment from New Delhi.”
“Yunus’ top priority is restoring order in Bangladesh and getting the state back up and having real democratic elections,” Kean added.
