ANALYSIS - Saudi establishment wary of desires of young crown prince

ISTANBUL

Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who became a shining star through a large PR campaign after his father Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud became Saudi Arabia’s king in January 2015, continues to make headlines through the decisions and initiatives he has undertaken since becoming crown prince on June 21, 2017.

The vital decisions made and faulty policies carried out by the inexperienced young prince, who is not yet 35, in line with his desires are disturbing the country's establishment.

Recently, MBS issued warrants for the arrest of more than 20 princes for “treason”, including his uncle Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, who he sees as his biggest rival, and his cousins Mohammed bin Nayef and Nawaf bin Nayef, previous heirs to the throne, conjuring up the dirty record of North Korea’s unpredictable leader Kim Jong-Un, full of executions.

In 2013, Kim sentenced his uncle, Jang Song-thaek – then considered the second-most important person in the country – to death for treason. Also, according to the BBC, he executed 15 high-ranking officials by firing squad on charges of challenging his authority.

The arrest of Prince Ahmed, the son of Saudi Arabia’s founding monarch, is a major event on its own. If it leads to a backlash, it might result in a bloody reckoning within the family. In the 1960s, King Faisal also staged a coup against his brother Saud bin Abdulaziz, but most of the family members supported this coup because Saud lacked the skills to lead the country. On the other hand, it's tough to say that MBS enjoys the same level of support from the family for him to take this risky and important strategic step. Of course, King Salman's support cannot be ignored, as he is clearing the way for his son. However, the wisdom of his approval is debatable due to his health issues.

While it's certain that the surprise arrests of his uncle and his cousins will isolate MBS further, it's also true that the biggest loss will be taken by the current Saudi regime, whose government changes up to now have always been made unanimously by the family. While one cannot speak of democracy, as the country is an absolute monarchy, not all of the family’s power and authority is concentrated in the ruler. However, it seems that MBS is trying to dynamite that tradition and have all of the authority and power to himself.

Prince Ahmed uncomfortable with nephew's policies

MBS was wary of his uncle and thought he would be a major obstacle on the road to kingship, as leading members of the ruling family wanted Prince Ahmed to lead the Allegiance Council. Being the head of such a key organization would have given Ahmed much clout. Well respected by his close circle, he is yet to pledge allegiance to MBS and is generally uncomfortable with his nephew's policies.

Indeed, the foreign and domestic policies MBS has weaved under the shadow of his ailing father, and in coordination with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, are creating major disturbances among the high-level executives of the Saudi establishment, which has a 100-year tradition of government.

In his latest article on March 14 titled ‘Leadership Lesson,’ Abdullah bin Abdulkerim Sadun, a writer at one of Saudi Arabia's more prestigious newspapers, concluded that leaders of the future should appreciate the opinions of their advisors and assistants and be educated to respect collective work and the opinion of the majority. We cannot say whether Sadun's article was inspired by the developments mentioned above, but we can argue that the crown prince has not undergone such leadership training, based on the political, economic and social decisions he has made and that he is putting his country's future at risk.

In essence, MBS is taking a huge political and economic risk with his rhetoric on transforming Saudi Arabia into a global power as part of his 2030 vision based on diversifying the country's petroleum-based economy and focusing on other sources of income.

First purging King Abdullah's circle

As will be remembered, around five months after MBS became crown prince, he detained tens of princes and ministers including King Abdullah's son Mutab and Saudi billionaire Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal for weeks at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel under the pretext of "fighting corruption." Some suggested that MBS intended to silence the deceased king’s circle and suppress potential attempts against himself.

Later, these figures were released after secret deals that resulted in them abandoning a large portion of their wealth. Thus, MBS not only eliminated potential competition but also accumulated an additional budget of $100 billion.

Efforts to change Saudi society

MBS's most significant disturbance of the dynasty class was certainly his investment in the entertainment industry. Saudi Arabia had never invested this amount of resources into entertainment before MBS became crown prince.

It was announced that in the following 10 years, $64 billion in investment would flow into the entertainment industry in the country, where there were over 5,000 events organized in 2019 alone. Huge sums went to organizing concerts of internationally known artists near holy lands.

MBS's decision to change the content of school textbooks was another feather-ruffling move that weakened the Ulama-government alliance. His joint efforts with the U.S. to promote "moderate Islam" against "extremist Islam" because it justified violence created much discomfort among groups in the Ulama and had a strong influence on the royal family. To cover-up, he arrested and imprisoned nearly 400 scholars who were against his policies, such as Salman al-Ouda and Awad al-Qarni, accusing them of "Ikhwanism" while using scholars who supported his policies like Abdul Rahman As-Sudais, Aid al-Qarni, and Saleh Al Maghamsi to amplify himself.

The young crown prince is deceiving the West through initiatives in women's rights, as well as international entertainment and sports events, to clear the way for the kingdom. In doing so, he is trying to strengthen his position inside the palace by clearing internal and external opponents behind the scenes.

It is unlikely that MBS's social engineering scheme carried out under Western directives will gain traction in the current Saudi Arabian society. As opposing groups are detained, those warning that society cannot take such rapid change and that it must be prepared are making little progress.

Policies on Turkey and Qatar

Those who have followed Saudi Arabia's regional policies can see that these policies had generally been balanced until MBS. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia have never been as bad as right now, during the current MBS period. Saudi Arabia has always been at the forefront for Turkey and relations between the two strong countries remained positive.

We are seeing that MBS has been directly targeting Turkey and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, especially through the media and recently through the Ulama in his circle, gradually since the day he became crown prince. Due to Turkey's fair approach to the murder of prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi and Turkey standing with Doha during the decision made by the United Arab Emirates-Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Bahrain quartet regarding the blockade of Qatar, there was, almost, a war against Turkey in the media.

The Saudi media, which acted as if they were the spokespeople of the PKK terrorist organization during Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria, acted as if they were the broadcasting organ of the Bashar al-Assad regime during Turkey’s Operation Spring Shield.

The UAE and Saudi duo was there to face Turkey wherever it went. Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Syria are the most significant examples of this attitude.

The blockade of Qatar aggravated the crisis between the Gulf states and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) lost its function. The policies toward Turkey and Qatar are seriously making the Saudi dynasty uncomfortable. Of course, it is not necessary to be a prophet to say that the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was close to the Saudi royal family and who was murdered only because he criticized the policies of MBS, was met with a great reaction in the dynasty.

‘Deal of the Century’ and efforts for normalization with Israel

The only wish of the King of Saudi Arabia, Faisal, who played the petroleum trump card against Western countries in the war with Israel, was to pray two Rak’ahs in the free Masjid Al-Aqsa. Today, however, Saudi Arabia, led by MBS, remains silent and praises U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for the Deal of the Century to eliminate the Palestinian issue, through the media. Normalization of relations with Israel is the main goal of this process.

The peace initiative taken by Crown Prince Abdullah, based on the principle of "normalization in exchange for land," in 2002 is effectively thrown out by the hands of MBS himself. MBS removing the Palestinian cause from his agenda and the efforts spent on the normalization of relations with Israel are among the most important issues that have caused such discomfort within the Saudi establishment.

Yemen’s civil war and Saudi Aramco attack

The operations that MBS launched against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen in March 2015 have completed their fifth year and they've evolved into fiascos. Thousands of civilians have been killed in those operations, which led to the Houthis targeting strategic points within Saudi Arabia, including Aramco. The most important item in MBS's weak scorecard is that when the UAE pulled its troops from Yemen, Saudi Arabia was left alone and the Houthis got stronger.

The adventurous policies pursued by the young heir constitute the main reason for the situation that the Saudi regime finds itself in, looking to come to an agreement with the Houthis through Oman.

The decision to boost oil production

The Saudi Arabian economy will likely take a hit from MBS's decision to increase oil output to hurt Russia’s economy. Budget expenditures will further decrease in the country as oil prices (which are already $30 and decreasing) continue dropping and major austerity measures will be implemented by the government.

The yearly budget prepared while oil prices were around $70 a barrel already had a deficit of $50 billion. In other words, the budget will have increased deficits, taxes will increase, price rises will happen, the private sector will weaken and the unemployment rate will increase as some projects will have to be paused under the 2030 vision.

In conclusion, Saudi Arabia is too large of a state for its future to be left to the personal ambitions of a young heir trying to gather all power and authority. The country is going through a major transformation that conflicts with its original official and religious values.

The recent arrests are indicating that MBS hasn't been able to establish complete authority and had to resort to coercive measures. The country is going through difficult times, and we hope that it will remain unharmed during this process, with a more effective struggle than it has showcased against the coronavirus epidemic.

*Halil Celik is deputy editor at Anadolu Agency's Middle East Translation News Department

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.

*Translated by Can Atalay in Ankara