MOSCOW
The decision to pull out Russian forces from Syria marks the formal end of Vladimir Putin’s military campaign in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The announcement by the Russian president had just one goal, that is to convince the public domestically and internationally that the war in Syria is over and Daesh is defeated.
Everything about last Monday's announcement, including Putin’s first triumphant visit to the Russian Khmeimim Air Base, was designed to demonstrate to adversaries who exactly came out in this fight.
In March 2016, the Russian president made a similar announcement of partially withdrawing forces from Syria only to intensify military presence in the country, which is why observers are skeptical about Putin’s intentions this time.
While the decision is reflective of a changing reality on the ground where the fighting is not as intensive as it was only a year ago, it also serves Putin’s ambitions at home as well as in the global arena.
Putin eyes re-election in March 2018 and his presidential campaign has just kicked off. Nothing stands between him and another 6-year term in the Kremlin but the character of the campaign speaks volumes about what the world should expect from the Russian president in the next six years.
Putin has had on the domestic front that would win him the backing of Russians, but his foreign policy achievements earned him the image of a powerful politician. This is the reason why foreign policy factors heavily into Russia's domestic politics and Putin is keen to use it in his favor.
Syria is hugely important for his political ambitions as it is the context where Russia managed to re-assert itself as a global power and a powerful rival of the United States. A military triumph in Syria is symbolic on many levels but above all, it restores Russian people's sense of national pride, something that Putin is willing to capitalize on.
Foreign policy successes strongly resonate with the Russian public and if history is any indication, they are what has kept the president popular at home.
The timing of the announcement is also quite telling and was arguably carefully picked to coincide with the beginning of his presidential campaign to create the right footing for it. The proclaimed victory in Syria puts Putin in the spotlight as a facilitator of Syrian dialogue. The idea of peacemaking will also likely be the main theme of the Russian president’s policy towards the Middle East during his next term in office.
The domestic policy calculations, however, are just one element that would explain Putin's decision on Syria. A lot of it has to deal with his posturing in the international arena as Russia is struggling to shift gears in Syria and convince the world that the conflict in the country is now all about the political process.
This requires Moscow to perform a publicity stunt and make a convincing if a symbolic move by announcing the withdrawal of forces. Hardly anyone buys into Russia's pullout promises given how misleading similar promises were in the past.
Putin's statement surely infuriated other powers fighting Daesh in Syria for two reasons. First, given what the Russian president said, it seemed that the announcement of Russia's partial withdrawal was an indication enough that Daesh had been defeated.
In other words, it is not really Putin's arrogance that was not welcomed but his conviction that it is up to Russia to decide when this war is over.
Second, not everyone is ready to accept the status quo in which Putin owns the victory in Syria. In fact, the United States begs to differ and believes that Putin does not deserve to claim the victory. But this is arguably the effect that Russia was going for.
In a new political "first come-first serve" reality, whoever claims victory first is the one who stands to reap the benefits, which is exactly what Putin hopes to do as he feels entitled to the victory in Syria even if it is only in words. What is key to him is to rid the United States of any illusion that it can be a beneficiary of the post-war period.
Russia has tolerated U.S. presence in Syria throughout the conflict despite constantly nagging the White House for operating on the battleground illegally but now it is telling Washington to leave Syria for good. In other words, when there is no war, those who came to fight have to leave, which the U.S. will hardly do.
Despite the fact that the fighting in Syria is becoming less intensive, the competition between Russia and the U.S. there seems to be heating up, with a war of words flaring up between the two countries over who defeated Daesh.
Both countries are trying to portray themselves as victors in the fight against the terrorist group, thus trying to rationalize their post-war presence in Syria. Both will probably try to reconfigure their modus vivendi in the country by advancing conflicting political narratives and backing conflicting political parties as both Moscow and Washington will struggle to remain relevant in Syria.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.
