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US consumers' short-term inflation expectations down in January: New York Fed

3-year-ahead, 5-year-ahead inflation forecasts unchanged at 3%, while labor market projections show moderate improvements

Mucahithan Avcioglu  | 09.02.2026 - Update : 09.02.2026
US consumers' short-term inflation expectations down in January: New York Fed

ISTANBUL

The short-term inflation expectations of US consumers were down to 3.1%, according to the results of a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released on Monday.

This represented a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month, according to the survey.

Meanwhile, the three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead expectations from last month remained unchanged, both at 3%.

While moderate improvements were observed in labor market expectations, consumers reported higher expectations of earnings growth, a lower probability of losing their jobs, and a higher probability of finding a new job if they did lose theirs.

The median expectation for earnings growth rose 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% in January.

Expectations for household income growth fell 0.1 percentage points in January to 2.9%, while expectations for spending growth remained unchanged at 4.9%.

Expectations for price hikes decreased to 2.8% for gasoline, 9.8% for healthcare, and 6.8% for rent. Expectations for food remained unchanged at 5.7%, while expectations for university education rose to 9%.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis in December last year, stable from the previous month.

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