ISTANBUL
Türkiye is set to take center stage in global diplomacy this Thursday as it prepares to host the first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years.
Expectations for a potential breakthrough are particularly high due to the possibility of a direct meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The global spotlight is also shining brightly on Istanbul because of Donald Trump’s vocal support for the idea, with the US president – currently on a tour of Gulf states – hinting he could travel to Türkiye if a Putin-Zelenskyy summit materializes.
The meeting, which would be the first direct negotiations between the two countries since the last round held in Istanbul in March 2022, comes after years of intense fighting, military escalations, and major diplomatic events that have reshaped both regional and international politics.
Here are the key moments of the war since February 2022:
‘Special military operation’
In a televised address on Feb. 24, 2022, Putin announced the start of a “special military operation” in Ukraine, three days after saying that Moscow would recognize Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent states.
The global response to Putin’s announcement was overwhelmingly negative, with Western countries slapping Moscow with what would be the first of many sanctions.
Control of Zaporizhzhia
On March 4, Russia declared it had taken control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant and one of the biggest in the world.
Moscow and Kyiv have since regularly accused each other of shelling the plant and its surroundings, stoking fears of a nuclear catastrophe.
Since Sept. 1, 2022, personnel from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have been present at the facility.
- 2022 Antalya and Istanbul talks
Moscow and Kyiv engaged in multiple direct talks in the initial weeks of the war, including meetings in Belarus and the Turkish resort city of Antalya.
The latter were followed by another round of negotiations in Istanbul in late March, where the two parties agreed on a draft peace agreement.
However, Ukraine later unilaterally withdrew from the peace process.
Black Sea grain deal in Istanbul
Türkiye, the UN, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement in Istanbul on July 22 to resume grain exports from three Ukrainian Black Sea ports that were suspended due to the war.
Under the deal, a coordination center was established to conduct joint inspections at entrances and exits of harbors and ensure the safety of routes.
The deal functioned until July 2023, when Russia pulled out, citing unfulfilled promises on lifting banking restrictions and its own fertilizer exports.
Unilateral annexation of Ukrainian regions
On Sept. 30, Putin declared the unilateral annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
This came after pro-Russia authorities conducted referendums in the regions earlier in the month. The international community, including Türkiye, the US and several European nations, condemned the “sham referendums” and refused to recognize their validity.
In response, Zelenskyy signed a decree declaring Russia’s annexation of the four regions, as well as the 2014 annexation of Crimea, null and void.
Russia’s Kherson withdrawal
On Nov. 9, Russia ordered its troops to pull out from Kherson, a port city in southern Ukraine, to the right bank of the Dnieper River.
Russia’s then-Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said the decision was taken to save the lives of Russian soldiers. Two days later, the Defense Ministry announced that Russian forces had completed their withdrawal across the river.
Kakhovka dam explosion
An explosion on June 6, 2023, blew up the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine’s Kherson region, flooding surrounding areas downstream and forcing thousands of people from their homes.
Moscow accused Ukraine of attempting to cut off fresh water to Crimea, while Kyiv claimed that Russia blew up the dam to slow down an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive
On June 10, Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had launched a counteroffensive against Russia, aiming to move through the frontlines in the country’s east and south.
Ukrainian officials said their forces regained control of multiple areas and settlements, claims that Russia denied, and the offensive was widely regarded as unsuccessful as it failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough.
Wagner rebellion and Prigozhin’s death
On June 24, the Wagner paramilitary group accused Russian forces of attacking its fighters, moving them from Ukraine to the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.
Russian authorities labeled it “an armed rebellion” and initiated a criminal case, while President Putin denounced it as an act of “treason.” The very next day, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his fighters were 200 kilometers (125 miles) away from Moscow when they decided to retreat to avoid violence.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko acted as a mediator, saying he engaged with Prigozhin to help the two sides reach a quick solution.
Two months later, on Aug. 23, Prigozhin, Wagner co-founder Dmitry Utkin, and several others were killed when their plane crashed during a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg.
EU accession talks with Ukraine
In December, the European Council announced it had decided to open accession talks with Ukraine and neighboring Moldova.
Kyiv officially applied for EU membership on Feb. 28, 2022, four days after the start of the war.
The EU then formally opened accession negotiations with Ukraine in June 2024.
Ukraine-UK security deal
Ukraine and the UK signed a 10-year security cooperation agreement on Jan. 12, 2024.
The deal was the first in a series of agreements signed between Ukraine and its partners, including the US, after G7 members announced their intention in July 2023 to support Ukraine with “bilateral security commitments and arrangements.”
A year later, in January 2025, the UK and Ukraine signed a 100-year partnership agreement.
- Russia’s 2024 Kharkiv offensive
In May, Ukraine said Russian forces had attempted to breach its defenses in the northeastern Kharkiv region, marking the opening of a new front in the war.
Russia said it captured multiple settlements in the offensive, but Zelenskyy described it as a “failure.”
- Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland
On June 15-16, representatives from 92 nations and eight international organizations attended the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, with Russia not participating.
The event ended with the adoption of a final statement, but that was not signed by some countries including Brazil, India, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
The communique covered three issues: Ukraine’s grain exports, the safety of nuclear power stations, and the return of war prisoners.
Ukraine targets Kursk
On the night of Aug. 6, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia’s border region of Kursk, with its forces entering the area near the town of Sudzha, approximately 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
At its peak, Kyiv claimed it had captured more than 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) of the border region, but has since been gradually pushed out by a Russian counteroffensive that included troops from North Korea.
Moscow said it had also captured settlements in Ukraine’s border region of Sumy. In April this year, Russia declared that all Ukrainian forces had been pushed out of Kursk, claims denied by Kyiv.
Russia updates nuclear doctrine
On Nov. 19, Putin signed a decree approving an updated nuclear doctrine, which states that “aggression” against Russia and its allies by a non-nuclear country with the support of a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack.
The updated doctrine also states that Russia may use nuclear weapons in the face of a critical threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as that of its ally Belarus.
Putin had initially announced plans for the changes in an address on Sept. 25, where he emphasized the urgency of revising the document, which then designated the use of nuclear forces as a “last resort.”
- Russia-Belarus security agreement
On Dec. 6, Russia and Belarus signed an agreement on mutual security guarantees. This included mutual defense obligations, integrating Minsk into Moscow’s nuclear deterrence framework, and provisions for a joint military response to “aggression.”
The agreement is valid for 10 years, with automatic extensions for subsequent decades.
The deal came after the two countries signed an agreement in May 2023 for the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Ukraine captures North Korean soldiers
On Jan. 11, 2025, Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region had captured two wounded North Korean soldiers fighting for the Russian military.
The Ukrainian president said Kyiv was ready to hand over the two soldiers to Pyongyang in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war held in Russia.
Neither Moscow nor Pyongyang initially confirmed claims of direct North Korean involvement. However, in April, Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov thanked North Korean soldiers for their contributions in pushing Ukraine out of Kursk.
Oval Office spat
On Feb. 28, 2025, Zelenskyy traveled to Washington to finalize a long-awaited minerals deal between the two countries, where he also held talks with Trump and US Vice President JD Vance at the White House.
However, the highly anticipated signing collapsed after a heated Oval Office exchange between the three, during which Trump and Vance berated the Ukrainian president, accusing him of showing little appreciation for years of American military and financial backing.
Zelenskyy pushed back, defending his wartime leadership and stressing that the conflict in Ukraine posed risks to global security — including for the US.
Ukraine’s president left the White House after the confrontation, and both the signing ceremony and a planned news conference were canceled, leading to a temporary suspension of US military aid to Ukraine in March.
US-Ukraine minerals deal
On April 30, Ukraine and the US finally signed the minerals deal following months of difficult negotiations after the heated Oval Office exchange in February.
Under the agreement, Kyiv and Washington will establish a joint investment fund, which will be partially financed by revenues from Ukraine’s natural resource extraction sector.
A bill on ratifying the deal was approved by Ukraine’s parliament on May 8, and later signed into law by Zelenskyy himself four days later.
Road to Istanbul peace talks
On May 11, Putin proposed a meeting for peace negotiations in Türkiye, making the announcement in a press conference as he countered Ukraine and European nations’ demand for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed Ankara’s readiness to host the discussions in a phone call with Putin the same day, followed by Trump urging Zelenskyy to “immediately” take up the Russian proposal for direct talks.
Zelenskyy responded by saying he would be in Türkiye on Thursday and expects Putin to also be there “personally.”
While Russia has yet to confirm Putin’s plans, Trump – who is on a tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE – said he would even consider traveling to Istanbul if the direct talks do go ahead, setting the stage for what could prove to be a diplomatically momentous May 15 in the historic Turkish city.
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