22 May 2017•Update: 23 May 2017
By Kaamil Ahmed
JERUSALEM
Having come through a presidential campaign and the first few months in office boasting of his skill as a negotiator, U.S. President Donald Trump's ability to seal the "ultimate deal" will be tested by his visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories this week.
Trump has insisted he could be the president to solve the decades-long Middle East conflict and some analysts expect he will try to put the first steps in place when he arrives Monday.
After his predecessor Barack Obama's tumultuous relationship with the issue, Trump's visit has been surrounded by a certain level of goodwill.
Israelis vigorously welcomed his electoral victory – especially after early promises, which have since been muted, about moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem – but Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has also projected optimism about Trump's ability to solve the conflict.
"I think there’s a general will with the new president in town to move things forward, what exactly that means is unknown," Professor Joshua Teitelbaum of the Israeli Bar-Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told Anadolu Agency.
"Although it’s unexpected the Saudis are happy, the Israelis are happy. The Palestinians are probably less happy but they’re happy to see some movement."
"From all of the buzz going around here, he very much wants to come out of this with some kind of accomplishment, which makes me think that he will try to announce, pre-arranged of course, some sort of restarting of Palestinian-Israeli talks," he said.
Teitelbaum said it is hard to tell whether any announcement would lead to concrete steps but it was unlikely Trump would broach divisive topics like moving the U.S embassy, which would essentially mean recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital despite the city being considered disputed by the international community.
He said it was possible the U.S. could recognize West Jerusalem as Israel's capital, as Russia recently said it would within a two-state framework, while if Trump pushed for talks he may be able to reach agreements on ending Israeli settlement building in the occupied West Bank or Palestinian funding to families of Palestinians prisoners or attackers who killed Israelis.
Public relations visit
Palestinian analysts also believe Trump has shied away from moving the U.S. embassy but believe the trip itself will not lead to any significant developments.
Nadia Hijabi, Executive director of Palestinian think-tank al-Shabaka, told Anadolu Agency it was unlikely Trump would announce an embassy move after his visit to Saudi Arabia, where he held a summit with leaders of Muslim countries on Sunday.
"The Palestinian Authority is trying to put itself in a "win-win" situation by appearing to be very positive and welcoming with Trump, leaving it to Israel to take a rejectionist stand," she said.
"They know that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu cannot offer much given the strength of the extreme right wing which he needs to keep on board to stay in power."
Alongside his meetings with Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials, Trump will visit Jerusalem's Church of the Holy Sepulcher and Western Wall as well as the holocaust memorial center Yad Vashem on Monday, before travelling to Bethlehem for talks with Abbas before finishing his trip with a speech at the Israel Museum on Tuesday.
Former Palestinian minister and Birzeit University Professor Ghassan Khatib said Trump's trip was a "public relations visit" which he was only making because he could not visit Saudi Arabia without also visiting Israel.
He said realistically Trump will avoid seriously dealing with the conflict because it is too complicated and will lead to friction in the relationship with Israel.
"When he gets closer to the conflict, he will start to feel the heat from the complexity of it," Khatib told Anadolu Agency.
"The political reality of Israel doesn’t allow any kind of costs, this right-wing government in Israel cannot be party to any kind of negotiation."
Khatib said there were no signs to expect a deal coming from the trip or from Trump's presidency as a whole, despite the Palestinian Authority's optimism.
"I think the reason for these overoptimistic statements is that Trump and his administration lowered the expectations of the Palestinians in the beginning, so they seem to be for it for the simple fact that they’re meeting with Trump and that he’s coming to Bethlehem," he said.
