Global markets surge amid eased recession concerns

ISTANBUL

Global markets are on a positive trend after US inflation data indicated a decrease in price pressures and retail sales climbed above expectations, resulting in weakened recession concerns.

US retail sales surge

Retail sales in the US increased 1% month-on-month in July, surpassing expectations and marking the highest monthly increase since January 2023. This strong performance alleviates some fears of a potential recession.

Job market defies expectations

The US job market showed resilience, with weekly jobless claims falling to 227,000, the lowest level since early July, and coming in below forecasts. Despite this, US industrial production declined by 0.6% month-on-month in July, slightly more than anticipated.

Fed’s likely rate cut

Fed officials have indicated that, while inflation is moving toward the 2% target, rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to act on rate cuts before the fourth quarter. Analysts suggest that, given the recent economic data, the Fed is more likely to reduce rates by 25 basis points in September rather than by 50 basis points.

Bond yields and currency movements

The US 10-Year bond yield ended its four-day decline as recession concerns eased, stabilizing at 3.93%. The US Dollar Index stands at 102.9. Gold prices rose 0.1% to $2,453 on Friday, following a 0.3% increase on Thursday. Brent crude oil prices are hovering at $80.2 per barrel, down 0.3% from the previous close.

US stock market performance

In the US, the Dow Jones Index rose by 1.39%, the S&P 500 by 1.61%, and the Nasdaq by 2.32% on Thursday. Index futures also showed gains on Friday.

European markets follow suit

European stock markets experienced gains on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 in the UK climbing 0.8%, the DAX 40 in Germany rising 1.66%, and the CAC 40 in France increasing by 1.23%. European index futures continued to rise on Friday. The British economy grew by 0.6% on a quarterly basis in April-June, following a 0.7% increase the previous quarter.

Asian markets and currency movements

In Asia, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is planning a gradual policy shift to support economic development. The US dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate stabilized at 148.9 after rising to 149.3 on Thursday. The Nikkei 225 in Japan soared 3.6%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 1.9%, and the Kospi Index in South Korea rose by 1.9%. The Shanghai Composite in China remained flat.

Türkiye’s market activity

In Türkiye, the BIST 100 index ended Thursday at 9,982.98 points, up 1.55% from the previous close. The US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate closed Thursday at 33.6396, with a slight increase to 33.6910 on Friday. Analysts note that the BIST 100 faces resistance at 10,000 and 10,100 points, with support levels at 9,850 and 9,750 points.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim