- 'The most notable aspect of the summit may be the positive visuals that emerge from it,' expert Ryan Hass tells Anadolu
- AI takes center stage as risks are discussed
Can Donald Trump and Xi Jinping turn a fragile US-China thaw into a more stable relationship?
The answer may hinge on trade, rare earths, artificial intelligence and a series of geopolitical flashpoints when the two leaders meet Thursday.
The meeting will be the second face-to-face encounter between the two leaders this year, following Trump's visit to Beijing in May, and Xi's first state visit to Washington in more than a decade.
Breaking with his usual practice of hosting foreign leaders at the White House, Trump went to Joint Base Andrews near Washington with first lady Melania Trump to meet Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, as they stepped off the plane.
Thursday's schedule opens with an official welcome and a troop review at the White House, after which the two leaders will hold talks behind closed doors, followed by a state dinner where prominent US tech figures, among them Nvidia chief Jensen Huang and Elon Musk, are on the guest list.
For Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and a former White House official on China, the optics may be the main story.
"Both leaders are interested in projecting an image of a positive and productive relationship. The most notable aspect of the summit may be the positive visuals that emerge from it," Hass told Anadolu.
Kyle Chan, a fellow at the same center who studies Chinese technology and industrial policy, was more cautious.
"I have low expectations for the summit," Chan told Anadolu.
Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, shared that view.
"The meeting is unlikely to produce any breakthroughs," Wyne told Anadolu. "Its major objective will be to preserve a tactical thaw between the world's two foremost powers."
Beijing's official framing is broader.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said China is willing to work with the US to enrich what Beijing calls a relationship of "constructive strategic stability," strengthen dialogue and properly manage differences.
The phrase was adopted as a new description of ties after the leaders met in Beijing in May.
Trade truce extended, bigger deal uncertain
The summit’s most pressing economic question was settled shortly after Xi’s plane touched down.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Washington and Beijing had agreed to extend until Jan. 10 the trade truce reached after Trump’s meeting with Xi in Busan, South Korea, last October.
The announcement came after Bessent met Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Washington, following preparatory talks in New York on Sunday.
Under the Busan deal, Washington lowered fentanyl-related tariffs and suspended higher reciprocal duties, while Beijing loosened export curbs on critical minerals. The pause had been due to expire on Nov. 10.
Bessent said Beijing had fallen short on some commitments and that Washington wants fuller implementation in the coming months. He said it remained unclear whether the sides would reach a broader deal or simply extend the current one.
Bessent also signaled that more announcements could come from the Chinese side in the coming days, including purchases of US farm products and possible deals in financial services.
Another sticking point is rare earths.
The US has pressed China to ensure supplies of rare earths and other critical minerals used in industries ranging from automobiles and electronics to aerospace and defense.
Beijing, which processes about 90% of the world’s rare earths, has sought greater access to US technology and urged Washington to ease restrictions on Chinese companies.
China imposed export controls on seven categories of rare earths and related magnets in April 2025. It later announced broader restrictions, which were suspended for one year under the Busan arrangement.
US officials have repeatedly said Chinese performance on restoring reliable flows has fallen short of expectations.
According to Chinese customs data, rare earth magnet exports to the US fell 21% in August from July.
AI: From rivalry to hotline?
Artificial intelligence has moved to the top of the agenda.
The two countries are the world's leading AI powers and see the technology as central to economic and military strength.
At the same time, both governments have begun exploring whether they can communicate about the risks created by sophisticated AI systems.
Trump and Xi discussed potential consultations on AI during their May meeting, but a formal mechanism was not established at the time.
Hass expects both leaders to acknowledge the importance of keeping channels open on AI safety, but does not expect “concrete outcomes beyond that."
Chan, meanwhile, said the risks posed by AI systems could create an incentive for Washington and Beijing to maintain communication despite their broader differences.
"In general, there's actually growing motivation for both countries to work together due to the escalating risks from AI, especially around cyber capabilities and autonomous systems."
Bessent said the US and China had agreed to set up a hotline to notify each other of AI safety incidents, although Beijing has not publicly confirmed the arrangement.
Chan noted that Congress has several bills ready to tighten restrictions on chips and chipmaking equipment sold to China. "The question is whether Trump might try to intervene in this process," he said.
Geopolitical flashpoints
Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing considers part of its territory, is expected to be among the most delicate subjects.
After the May summit, the US paused a record $14 billion arms package for Taiwan.
Trump described arms sales to the island claimed by China as a "very good negotiating chip."
The summit also takes place against the backdrop of the US war in Iran, which began on Feb. 28.
The conflict has direct implications for China because of the country's energy needs and its reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Chinese officials have recently said Beijing is prepared to play a constructive role in efforts to resolve the conflict.
Hass said Trump might want to briefly address the issue. "Trump will not want to ask Xi for assistance in dealing with Iran, and Xi will be reluctant to offer any assistance in exercising influence over Iran to lay down its arms."
He also expects Ukraine and North Korea to feature in the leaders' broader discussions.
Beyond specific deals, analysts say the larger question is whether the meeting keeps the current calm intact.
The visit comes weeks before US midterm elections.
"Both leaders recognize the benefit of buying time and space to reduce vulnerabilities to each other," Hass added. "Whether they will be able to act in self-interest to extend that period of calm will be a key question from the summit."
