- Iran has fired at less than 40% of the daily average of the 40-day war, analyst Ibrahim Jalal tells Anadolu, saying Tehran can maintain slow-paced war for months
A pause in fighting between the US and Iran after five months of war has raised a larger question: Has either side gained the upper hand?
Defense analysts say the answer is unclear, with Washington escalating military pressure without a clear endgame while Tehran continues to absorb strikes and retaliate across the region.
Before pausing strikes on the weekend, the US conducted 13 consecutive nights of strikes against Iran.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told reporters that Trump is allowing "some space" for diplomatic discussions with Iran.
Experts, however, say months of military pressure have done little to change Tehran's calculations and are unlikely to force Iran to accept Washington's demands.
"US strategy remains essentially the same as five months prior,” Brandon Carr of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told Anadolu.
“The hope is that the application of military force will sooner or later cross an imaginary threshold that is enough to alter the Iranian regime’s calculus and force them to accept American political demands," he added.
Carr, a senior studies associate at the institute, said that the strategy will likely remain unsuccessful.
"Iran, through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, retains the majority of the war’s leverage, and the US has no sound military options," he said.
Analyst Ibrahim Jalal believes that Iran’s strategies of horizontal escalation and strategic patience remain unchanged five months on.
"If anything, it’s adapting its arsenal, strike precision and wild cards to retain coercive leverage, including through Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia’s maritime trade, the major bypass from Hormuz."
Former Pentagon official Jason Campbell told Anadolu that the US has neither a clear objective nor an endgame.
"The Trump administration is yet to articulate a comprehensive strategic vision for what this war was set to accomplish."
US expanding operations?
According to The New York Times, Trump has set aside for now plans to escalate the Iran conflict, with concern that "intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East."
With the pause in attacks, Waltz, in an interview with NBC, dismissed reports that US weapons stockpiles are depleted and said the US had "everything that it needs" for military operations against Iran.
Earlier this month, reports suggested that the Pentagon was rushing warplanes to the Middle East, including Air Force F-16 and F-35 fighters.
Campbell said that not only are those fighter jets being sent, but some of the refueling capabilities are also being sent to Israel, signaling some type of escalation.
He said this indicates that the US and Israel appear to be proceeding more on their own and could signal that the Gulf countries do not want the operation launched from their territory to avoid an Iranian reaction.
Iran maintaining pace
Jalal, a senior researcher and policy advisor, said that Iran can maintain this slow-paced war for many months.
"The IRGC is thought to still retain significant missile and drone stockpiles. It has recently fired at less than 40% of the daily average of the 40-day war — and with notable precision and lethality."
He said that access to most of its underground missile cities and facilities has been restored, and the lessons from the 40-day war have been incorporated.
According to Carr, Iran is clearly demonstrating that it has increased targeting ability and reach.
"It is attempting to signal to the US that there is no safe haven for the US to conduct military operations in the region without leaving its forces vulnerable."
Last week, the Pentagon abruptly lowered the number of US troops it reports were killed during the Iran war on its website from 18 to 14, with military officials and a Pentagon spokesman providing conflicting explanations for the change, The New York Times reported.
Recent reports suggest that the number of US service members wounded in the war with Iran has surpassed 600.
With the casualities, Carr said Iran is trying to raise the costs of US military operations.
"Iran is trying to signal that not only can it close the Strait of Hormuz, but that it can have real military impact."
Jalal also sees the Houthi announcement of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia as a pressure lever within the US-Iran war, regardless of how the Houthis seek to present their justification.
Advancements in the war
Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said that the recent Iranian attack on a US military site in Jordan that killed three US soldiers has shown the IRGC's ability to inflict a deadly attack.
"The reports are that it was one of Iran's larger warhead faster, ballistic missiles that was capable of air and missile defenses, and it struck with great precision."
He said that there has been speculation for a while that Iran, in response to the US attacks, has been holding some of its more capable and potentially deadly tools almost in reserve.
Experts say that with the completion of the World Cup and the funeral of Ali Khamenei, the US and Iran will most likely continue to climb the escalation ladder to improve their bargaining positions, while mediators will continue to find common but fragile grounds for diplomacy.
"We have reached a point now where neither side is going to be able to control the degree of escalation," said Campbell.
