43% of Americans believe civil war somewhat likely in next decade: Poll

TEXAS, United States

43% of Americans believe the current political climate is at least somewhat likely to lead to another civil war in the US within the next decade, according to a recent poll by The Economist magazine and YouGov.

Of that group, 14% believe it is very likely that political violence will culminate in civil war, according to the survey, which was released on Aug. 26.

"I think it (highlights) the rising polarization that exists among our political leaders, and in particular, among Americans who strongly identify with their political parties," said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston, Texas.

Broken down into political affiliations, those who consider themselves "strong Republicans" were more likely to see war ahead, with 54% believing that a civil war is at least somewhat likely within the next 10 years and 21% of them believing civil war is very likely.

Only 40% of those who consider themselves "strong Democrats" believe that a civil war is at least somewhat likely, with just 14% of that group believing such a scenario is very likely.

"People view politics in a very tribal manner, where everything their side does is good and everything the other side does is bad," Jones told Anadolu Agency.

"The elections are increasingly more about who can mobilize their base support to turn out in larger numbers rather than to convince swing voters to come over to their side instead of voting for the other party."

In particular, Jones said the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection in Washington, DC was a clear indication that Americans were capable of acting out violently against the US government.

"Or at least it was an indication that some of type of norms and formal codes that had previously existed in our system were not as firm and robust as we had thought," said Jones.

Of the 1,500 Americans surveyed in the poll, 66% believe that political divisions in this country have gotten worse since the beginning of 2021, compared to only 8% who say the country has grown less divided.

A total of 60% of those surveyed anticipate an increase in political violence in the next few years, with only 9% expecting political violence to decline.

"What we saw during the Jan. 6 riots, uprising, is the extent to which political elites were willing and able to fuel that type of violent behavior," said Jones. "That violence would not have occurred without the implicit encouragement by (then-)President (Donald) Trump, if not the direct encouragement related to claims of a fraudulent election that he continued to tell his supporters."

The poll indicated that compared to Democrats, Republicans are more likely to say political division has worsened and expect the political divide to widen.

Jones said it is a matter of whether Americans see the glass half-full or half-empty.

"The question remains is whether we've hit rock bottom and things will only get better from here, or whether things can get worse and the polarization can get worse," said Jones.