Transition exposes Chad to security, political challenges

LOME, Togo

The death of Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno on April 20, just a day after he was re-elected to a controversial sixth term has exposed the north-central African country to security and political challenges.

Head of the ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement, Deby was the president of Chad since 1990, when he took power by leading a rebellion against President Hissene Habre.

He was killed while commanding forces fighting on the front against rebels from the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) in the north of Chad, according to the official version of events released by the Chadian government.

The deceased president was immediately replaced by his son, Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, a 37-year-old military officer.

"He made a huge mistake. As the first citizen of the country, he should not have exposed himself to imminent risks and dangers," said Ali M. Khayar , a Chadian political scientist.

But Seyni Cisse Diop, a security expert and former Senegalese military official appreciated that Deby was leading from the front and boosting the morale of his soldiers.

But he hastened to add that his staff should have taken security measures to ensure his safety on the battlefield.

According to human rights defenders, Deby left a legacy of abuse, in particular against political opposition, civil society, and those who had strongly opposed his re-election.

"This is a blow to a country that is neither institutionally nor sociologically strong. The marshal did not lay the groundwork for a peaceful generational transition that would allow a republican and sovereign transition," said Khayar.

"Chad is, therefore, today prey to all kinds of covetousness and politico-anarchic desires. The country finds itself in a situation of turmoil with huge risks of escalating violence and crisis," he added.

National cohesion a challenge

Speaking to Anadolu Agency, pan-African consultant Regis Hounkpe said the deceased president was "more a warlord than a politician” and an "assertive autocrat who hunted down opponents".

He said it will be very complicated to restore national cohesion or maintain peace to resolve the conflicts that existed before his death.

"Political conflicts will persist even more with the military class that has seized power and entrusted it to Mahamat Idriss Deby, the president's son," said the consultant.

Khayar cautioned that a "military confrontation can plunge the country into disarray and confusion if the son maintains the transitional leadership in this logic of power’s confiscation".

He believed that despite his military background and military aristocracy backing him, the new president is yet to mature to lead Chadian destiny.

The political scientist also pointed out legal complications in giving powers to Deby’s son, by pointing out that under the constitution in case of death of the president the power is transferred to the president of the Senate. Ironically the country has no Senate or vice-president.

The National Assembly was dissolved when the army projected the younger Deby as leader of the Transitional Military Council.

Challenges for transition leader

Khayar said the transition should have been made by establishing a constituent assembly to rewrite a new constitution and designate members of a transitional council.

On the security front, the major challenge for the transition leader will be to "gain acceptance, first as a military leader by demonstrating effective leadership and to convince donors at the international level about his ability to maintain stability," according to Diop.

He said the new president will have to express an effective commitment to deploying Chadian troops in the fight against terrorism.

"International actors will have to support Chad on all fronts. They should do everything to ensure that its military power is maintained because no other country is currently able to play the role as Chad is playing against terrorism," said Diop, a former military officer.

He also urged the international community particularly the American and French to support the transition and share strategic intelligence to help the country to combat terrorism.

"These forces must provide substantial air support to stop regrouping of rebels," said the former officer.