- 'The violence was triggered by disagreement on the replacement of long-staying soldiers of the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF) in Nasir for a period of 10-plus years,' Yakani tells Anadolu
- 'Whether the country returns to civil war or not depends on the leaders’ decisions for dialogue among themselves and work to de-escalate the situation,' says senior analyst Daniel Akech
ISTANBUL
South Sudan is facing mounting fears of a return to civil war as political tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar intensify, leading to violent clashes and high-level arrests of key political and military figures.
The latest developments have put the country’s fragile 2018 peace agreement at risk, with experts warning that deep mistrust between the two leaders is fueling instability.
On Monday, Kiir dismissed three ministers in a Cabinet reshuffle widely seen as linked to the escalating political crisis. The move followed a US evacuation order last week to get non-emergency personnel out of the country, citing heightened security risks and widespread availability of weapons among civilians.
Regional leaders, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have stepped in to mediate, calling for an extraordinary summit on Wednesday to address the crisis.
South Sudan, which gained independence in 2011, plunged into civil war two years later. Although the 2018 peace deal between Kiir’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO) halted major fighting, key reforms — such as the disarmament of armed groups and election preparations — remain stalled.
Surge in violence
The latest flare-up began on March 4, when a Nuer militia linked to Machar seized an army base in Nasir, a strategic town near the South Sudan-Ethiopia border. According to the International Crisis Group, Machar accused the army of launching attacks on Feb. 25 in Ulang County, and allegedly assaulting the first vice president’s loyalists in the west of the country.
The White Army, a militia tied to Machar’s Nuer community, later took control of Nasir following clashes with government troops.
“The violence was triggered by disagreement on the replacement of long-staying soldiers of the South Sudan People's Defense Forces (SSPDF) in Nasir for a period of 10-plus years,” said Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO)-South Sudan.
“The White Army resisted the deployment of new SSPDF forces apart from the unified forces. It seems the SPLM/IO are supporting the White Army because, in the past from 2013 to 2018, the White Army were fighting together,” he added.
The situation escalated further on Friday when a UN helicopter attempting to evacuate soldiers in Nasir was attacked, leaving at least 27 people dead.
“The recent violence in Nasir county, where a South Sudan People's Defense Force general and a UN peacekeeper were killed, is a demonstration of clear proxy war between the two leaders,” Yakani said.
Meanwhile, in the capital Juba, tensions spiked last week when Kiir ordered the arrest of several of Machar’s top allies.
“Machar has forces positioned not far from Juba,” said Daniel Akech, senior South Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group.
“If the government forces loyal to President Kiir decide to attack these areas, the situation could quickly escalate into violence near Juba. Any conflict near Juba could increase the risk for opposition officials arrested there,” he warned.
A ‘deficit in trust’
Analysts say a deepening lack of trust between Kiir and Machar is at the heart of South Sudan’s ongoing instability.
“The trend of deficit in trust and confidence begins in mid-December 2013 until today,” said Yakani.
“The two leaders, since 2018, have been fully engaged in accusing each other on matters of absence of political will and commitment … Blaming for non-compliance for successful political transitioning of the situation in the country was an old act,” he added.
Risk of renewed civil war
The growing tensions have raised concerns that South Sudan may once again slide into full-scale war.
In a statement, the International Crisis Group warned that “South Sudan is slipping toward renewed conflict and political upheaval.”
Yakani echoes these concerns, cautioning that if the political tensions between Kiir and Machar are not addressed in time, “the probability of the country returning to full-scale civil war is higher.”
He urged IGAD leaders to convene an urgent meeting on “sorting out” the dispute between South Sudanese leaders on the implementation of the 2018 peace agreement.
Akech notes that the situation remains fluid.
“Whether the country returns to civil war or not depends on the leaders’ decisions for dialogue among themselves and work to de-escalate the situation,” he said.
Peace deal at risk
The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has warned that the surge in violence, escalating political tensions, and instability in Juba threaten to derail the 2018 peace agreement.
“South Sudan should be moving forward, implementing the provisions of the peace agreement, strengthening institutions, and building a foundation for democracy,” said Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission.
“Instead, we are witnessing an alarming regression that could erase years of hard-won progress. Rather than fueling division and conflict, leaders must urgently refocus on the peace process, uphold the human rights of South Sudanese citizens, and ensure a smooth transition to democracy,” she said.
Experts say the power-sharing deal has been fraught with problems.
Under the agreement, Kiir has the authority to appoint and dismiss officials, but he requires consent from opposition leaders when removing their representatives.
“Since Machar and Kiir formed a government in 2020, the two leaders have not worked together to ensure that key provisions of the 2018 peace agreement are implemented,” Akech noted.
Yakani warns that the agreement is now at serious risk of collapse.
Pointing out that the ceasefire and unification of forces are key elements of the deal, he said, however, that the erosion of trust among the parties means the transitional period could be extended further.
The arrest of SPLM/IO senior military and security officials has only heightened concerns.
Keeping detained senior officers from the group “for a long period of detention or carrying out more arrests of the SPLA-IO senior officers is likely to trigger further occurrence of heavy civil war in the country,” Yakani said.
