ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia
Ethiopia is a nation at war with itself, at least in the eyes of non-Ethiopians who look at what is happening and what led to the current state of affairs at face value.
Ethiopia is a complex multi-ethnic nation. A nation whose formation goes back at least 3,000 years cannot be said to have a linear track in history, demography and political economy.
Those who want to understand the genesis of the current conflict may benefit if they consider milestones in the past three decades, at least.
And as Ethiopia welcomes a new year Sept. 11, it is good to look back at some of those milestones that have a bearing on the current military goings-on.
1991
A watershed moment in Ethiopian history. That year witnessed the northern guerillas from Eritrea and Tigray -- note that Eritrea was one of the provinces of Ethiopia -- coming to victory. By that time the Eritrean war for independence was 30 years old, while the Tigray insurgency was in its 17th year of resistance against a brutally suppressive militaristic and Marxist regime called the Derg, with Col. Mengistu Hailemariam, now in exile in Zimbabwe, at the helm.
On May 28, the civil war ended. The guerillas entered the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa. A four-party coalition of left-wing groups was introduced, of which the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was the commanding partner. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia was dissolved paving the way for a TPLF-led Transitional Government of Ethiopia.
It was not long after the formation of the transitional government that the TPLF proved itself to be equally brutally suppressive when it forcefully subdued the Oromo Liberation Front, after its leaders briefly joined hands with the TPLF (EPRDF) and helped design the federal Constitution, one still in effect.
While many credit the TPLF for enabling Ethiopia with achieving rapid economic growth, many argue that the growth has benefited few elites with little or no trickle down. The majority of Ethiopians speak with one voice in condemning the TPLF for ruling with “blood and iron.”
1993
Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia, rendering the most populous Horn of Africa nation, the second most populous in Africa, a landlocked country.
1998 - 2000
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a bloody war where an estimated 70,000 people perished. That war, which many said was caused by the whims of ruling elites in both countries with Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia and Isaias Afeworki in Eritrea in the leadership positions, is still fresh in the minds of Ethiopians. After the war, an international boundary commission ruled the immediate cause of the conflict, which is a small patch of land on the border between the two countries, and give it to Eritrea. Demarcation never happened but the two countries normalized relations after two decades of a no-peace, no-war situation.
2005
That is a landmark year as Ethiopians said no to the then TPLF-led government. It was the third parliamentary election and the ruling party lost big at the polls. Post-voting was violent and hundreds were killed as security forces fired at demonstrators. Thousands were jailed across the country and an equal amount exiled. Among prisoners were big opposition figures including Berhanu Nega, Bertukan Mideqsa, professor Merera Gudina and others. The hopes of the country for a peaceful, democratic transition were dashed.
2018 - 2020
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed comes to power.
2019
This is the most important milestone. In August, Ethiopia and Eritrea officially put an end to two decades of hostilities and embarked on the path of a new diplomatic thaw and social, economic and political cooperation. That, in addition to Abiy’s regional roles of peace and cooperation in the Horn of Africa, earned the young leader the enviable Nobel Peace Prize.
In December, a new ruling party was formed in place of the predecessor Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Three of the four-party coalition dissolved and joined the new Prosperity Party (PP) while the mover and shaker in the coalition, the TPLF, refused to dissolve; rather it retained its status as a ruling party in the Tigray regional state, Ethiopia’s northernmost region.
2020
In early September, the Tigray region, ruled by TPLF, conducted an election in defiance of the federal government. By that time, the sixth parliamentary election was postponed in a declaration made by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE).
On Nov. 23, forces of the TPLF attacked federal army bases stationed across Tigray, including in the regional capital, Mekele. On Nov. 24, the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared what it described as “Law Enforcement” against Tigray rebels. In initial fighting, the TPLF lost several prominent figures while others were captured and taken to Addis Ababa.
2021
In June, the TPLF resurged and the Ethiopian army left Tigray. From then on, the TPLF invaded the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission issued a report of their joint investigation in early November. The report said federal forces and TPLF rebels committed rights violations.
2022
In March, the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral humanitarian truce. The truce made it possible for the transportation of bulks of food, medicine and fuel into the Tigray regional state while it allowed the African Union Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to be shuttled between Addis Ababa and Mekele in what appeared to be a preparatory move before official mediation talks began.
Ethiopia said it would talks with the rebels without any preconditions but the Tigray rebels rejected the African Union’s mediation and said they would prefer the outgoing Kenyan president to lead an international mediation group that includes the US, EU and the UN.
Fighting resumed between Ethiopian forces and Tigray rebels Aug. 2, on many fronts. The two sides traded blame for the flare-up of deadly fighting. The war continues but reports from the frontlines show that the rebels are suffering major losses as the army is advancing on Tigray. Meanwhile, the rebels alleged that the army colluded with Eritrea to launch “massive offensives” against them.
Shocking news was reported Aug. 25 that the TPLF looted 570,000 liters of fuel from the World Food Program’s Mekele Depot intended for humanitarian operations.
