The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised down its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast, citing expectations of rising global inventories that are likely to exert downward pressure on prices.
Average Brent crude oil price for this year is expected to be $65.85 per barrel, down from the previous forecast of $67.87, according to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released late Thursday.
The agency had forecast an even higher price in its January report, marking a total downward revision of approximately $8 per barrel.
The outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has also been revised lower, from $63.88 to $61.81 per barrel.
EIA attributed the downward revision primarily to supply-side pressures. Last month’s production increase announcements from OPEC+ members have reinforced market perceptions of a supply glut and contributed to a buildup in global oil inventories. These increases are expected to weigh on prices throughout the remainder of the year.
In the first four months of 2025, inventories are estimated to have grown by an average of 300,000 bpd—a sharp contrast to the agency’s January outlook, which had projected a drawdown of more than 200,000 bpd during the same period.
The report also highlights that the oversupply perception is not limited to OPEC+ activity, growing output from non-OPEC producers is further disrupting the supply-demand balance. Meanwhile, lingering uncertainty surrounding retaliatory trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump is contributing to increased short-term price volatility.
Looking ahead, the EIA expects the inventory buildup to continue. Global oil stocks are projected to increase by an average of 500,000 bpd in the second quarter and 700,000 bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year, average inventory growth is expected to reach 400,000 bpd, accelerating to 800,000 bpd in 2026.
Expectations of uninterrupted global oil supply suggest a gradual decline in Brent crude prices. Brent crude, which averaged $76 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, is projected to fall to $61 by the fourth quarter. Prices are expected to stabilize at an average of $59 per barrel throughout 2026.
For 2024, the agency had reported an average price of $80.56 per barrel for Brent crude and $76.60 per barrel for WTI.
- US crude production forecast revised down
The EIA projects that average daily crude oil production in the US will reach approximately 13.42 million barrels in 2025, 90,000 bpd lower than the previous month's forecast.
This figure was recorded at approximately 13.21 million bpd last year.
Meanwhile, global oil supply for this year is expected to reach 104.13 million bpd, with global demand projected at 103.71 million bpd.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr