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Oil prices to float below $80 in short-term on declining demand

- Oil prices end the week at $78.30, up 2.1%, signaling a recovery trend, although they remain below $80 mark

home > Oil 24.08.2024 15:14 Duygu Alhan

Oil prices to float below $80 in short-term on declining demand

The price of Brent crude oil, which fell in response to weakened demand reflected in global macroeconomic data and efforts towards a ceasefire in the Middle East, has been trading below $80 for the past six sessions, and experts forecast that prices would continue to stay below this level in the short term.

Brent crude oil, which was last recorded at $80.40 on Thursday of the previous week, has failed to reach this level in the past six sessions, due to weak economic data from China, the world's largest oil importer, and the US, the largest oil consumer.

According to data released last week, new house prices in China extended their 14-month downward trend, showing a 4.9% year-over-year decline in July.

Meanwhile, the country's industrial production rose by 5.1% year-on-year, falling short of forecasts, while the unemployment rate exceeded expectations at 5.2%.

Additionally, weak labor market data from the US heightened concerns about economic growth and reinforced forecasts of subdued demand from China.

The US Department of Labor has revised its non-farm employment data for the 12-month period ending in March 2024. The revision indicates that employment in the US increased by 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported during this period.

While the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the US increased to 232,000 for the week ending August 17, the number of ongoing unemployment benefit claims rose by 4,000 to 1.86 million for the week ending August 10.

- Data raises concerns about demand

The data heightened concerns about economic growth in various countries and intensified market players' worries about demand, suppressing prices.

On the other hand, the prospect of a cease-fire in the Middle East, home to a vast majority of global oil reserves, alleviated supply concerns in the markets, contributing to the decline in prices.

Amid these developments, Brent crude oil, which had risen to $81.92 last week, was unable to maintain those levels and ended the week at $79.10.

On Wednesday, Brent fell to $75.70 per barrel and lost 1.3% of its value on the same day.

After US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced the need to adjust monetary policy in his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, prices ended the week at $78.30, marking a 2.1% increase indicating a recovery trend, though they remained below $80.

- China's lower-than-expected oil demand is a key focus for the market

The decline in oil prices is attributed to a combination of factors rather than a single cause, Julien Mathonniere, Oil Markets Economist at the US-based Energy Intelligence, told Anadolu.

Noting that the weak demand forecast from China is the most significant factor among these reasons, Mathonniere highlighted that China's lower-than-expected oil demand is a major concern for the market, especially after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) downgraded its 2024 global demand growth forecast in response to these weak projections.

Mathonniere also noted that the reduction in gasoline and diesel production by refineries in China in July, compared to the same period last year, also influenced prices.

“Chinese refiners cut gasoline and diesel output in July compared to the same period last year, when demand for these two products should, on the contrary, be rising during the third quarter. And because this happened in China, the world’s largest oil importer, this bearish trend has revived the prospect of peak demand for transportation fuels and started to roil global prices again,” Mathonniere said.

- China has yet to deliver the anticipated boost in demand

Contrary to forecasts, no decisive growth in demand has been observed in China this year, Mathonniere said. He added that Energy Intelligence reported a year-on-year decline of 284,000 barrels per day in China's oil demand for the second quarter, reflecting weak industrial activity and instability in the private sector.

“With Brent crude now trading October barrels, the country’s ability to live up to expectations is increasingly being questioned,” He said.

Mathonniere noted that another factor contributing to the decline is concerns over discrepancies between the reported and actual quantities in oil storage facilities, transportation, or sales transactions.

For this reason, Mathonniere explained that market participants believe either supply is being underestimated or demand is being overstated. This discrepancy creates uncertainty among market players, leading to a market reaction characterized by falling prices.

Emphasizing that the impact of renewed ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East on oil prices has been limited, Mathonniere marked that hopes for reconciliation in the region are not enough to lower the risk premium on prices.

“A bank analyst earlier this week mentioned a $4-$8 per barrel risk premium, but I disagree and think the risk premium, if any, had already melted a while ago. Middle East no longer is centre stage for oil traders, even if it will keep simmering in the background,” Mathonniere said.

- Prices are unlikely to rise significantly unless there is an increase in demand in China

Mentioning that prices are unlikely to rise unless there is an increase in China's oil demand in the future, Mathonniere noted an intriguing theory that the market might attempt to compel OPEC to take action by driving prices down.

According to Mathonniere, this could prompt the group to halt its planned rollback of cuts in the fourth quarter. Although it may be somewhat optimistic to expect the market to force such a concerted price decline, falling prices will likely lead the group to reconsider its plans for rolling back cuts as the end of the year approaches.

- Market is focusing on decision from Federal Reserve to find direction

Gaurav Sharma, an independent London-based oil market analyst, also stated that oil prices could rise if the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September. He added that he believes the market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's decisions to determine its direction.

“If an interest rate cut is announced in September, it could be price positive for crude futures. Until then market weakness may likely persist,” Sharma said.

Sharma noted that uncertainties regarding oil demand in China are putting pressure on crude oil prices and he pointed out that recent data shows a slowdown in industrial production, rising unemployment, and falling housing prices in China.

He emphasized that overcoming these challenges will be difficult, particularly as many market forecasters, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, predict lower Chinese demand in 2024 and 2025.

Pointing out that the impact of geopolitical developments in the Middle East on the oil market is limited, Sharma said if oil demand remains weak, geopolitics can only have a limited impact on crude prices.

“This is particularly true at the moment due to rising supplies of non-OPEC crude oil,” he concluded.

By Duygu Alhan

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr


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Oil prices down amid mixed signals on US trade policy

- Weak dollar exerts upward pressure on prices, making dollar-indexed crude oil cheaper for buyers
15.04.2025 Oil

Azerbaijan exports around 3 bcm gas to Europe, 2.3 bcm to Türkiye in 1st quarter

- Between January and March, 1.4 billion cubic meters of gas were sent to Türkiye via TANAP, says Azerbaijani energy minister
14.04.2025 Natural Gas , Oil

Banias oil refinery resumes operations in Syria’s Tartus province

- Estimated production capacity around 95,000 barrels per day at refinery
14.04.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 9 for week ending April 11

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 26 compared to one year ago
14.04.2025 Refining/Petro Chemistry

Oil prices set for second straight weekly loss

- Brent crude drops to $58.22 per barrel during week ending April 11, testing its lowest level since February 2021
11.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices up amid Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs

- Ongoing US-China trade dispute, alongside rising US oil inventories continue to raise concerns about global oil demand
11.04.2025 Oil

US energy agency revises down Brent price forecast for 2025

- International benchmark Brent crude estimated to average $67.87 per barrel
12.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices slide despite brief rebound

- Brent crude dips on US-China tariff tensions and rising US stockpiles
10.04.2025 Oil

US crude oil inventories up by 0.6% for week ending April 4

- Daily crude oil production falls to around 13.46 million barrels per day
10.04.2025 Oil

Brent prices at their lowest since Feb 2021 amid US-China tensions

- Brent crude falls to $59.97 per barrel in international markets on April 9, marking its lowest level since February 2021
10.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices fall amid trade fears, supply surplus expectations

- Prices decline as US President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs take effect, including a staggering 104% tariff on Chinese imports
09.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices rebound with profit-taking

- Prices partially recover as investors look to take advantage of previous session's low pricing
09.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices fall amid global trade fears, OPEC+ production

- Brent crude plummets 3.87% to $63.20 per barrel, hitting a four-year low
08.04.2025 Oil

Syrian government plans to take control of oil fields east of Euphrates

- Ghassan Ahmed, Governor of Syria's Deir ez-Zor province, stated that oil fields will be fully transferred to control of Ministry of Oil, marking a significant boost to the country's economy
07.04.2025 Oil , Energy Diplomacy

Oil prices are forecasted to stay below $80 threshold for extended period

- Brent crude drops 9.2% to $65.74 in first week of April, marking its lowest weekly close since August 2021
07.04.2025 Oil

US oil rig count up by 5 for week ending April 4

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 19 compared to one year ago
05.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices head for lowest close since August 2021 amid escalating trade tensions

- Following China's move to impose retaliatory tariff on US goods, prices plunged sharply on Friday, with weekly decline exceeding 10%
05.04.2025 Oil

Trump's tariff decisions hold potential to destabilize oil prices

- By April 3, Brent crude plunges 5.4%, closing at $69.63, after US President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff actions
05.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices fall amid US tariffs, OPEC+ supply boost stoke market fears

- President Trump issues executive order enforcing 10% baseline tariff on all imports
04.04.2025 Oil

OPEC+ accelerates output hike plan for May

- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman to implement production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, which includes three monthly increments
04.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices down amid US tariff announcements, higher-than-expected US crude inventories

- President Trump signs executive order imposing baseline tariff of 10% on all countries
04.04.2025 Oil

US crude oil inventories up by 1.4% for week ending March 28

- Daily crude oil production reaches roughly 13.58 million barrels per day
04.04.2025 Oil

Int. Energy Agency says energy innovation slowing despite potential

-'We require investment, both public and private, to scale up innovative solutions,' says Fatih Birol, head of IEA
03.04.2025 Electricity , Oil , Renewable , Finance

Oil prices fall amid tariff concerns, rising US crude stocks

- US President Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday—dubbed “Liberation Day”—which he says will apply to all countries
03.04.2025 Oil

Oil prices fall amid concerns over US tariffs and sanctions

- As US President Donald Trump prepares to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, focus shifts to their impact on global trade
02.04.2025 Oil

Fire occurs at Petronas gas pipeline in Malaysia

- Affected pipeline near Putra Heights, Puchong, Selangor 'has been isolated,' state energy firm says
01.04.2025 Oil

China discovers 100-million-ton crude oil reserve in South China Sea

- New offshore field located within China’s Exclusive Economic Zone, says state oil firm
01.04.2025 Oil

Global oil demand loses momentum

- Oil demand growth down significantly from 1.9% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024
01.04.2025 Oil

Oil up amid Trump's Russia tariffs, Iran bombing threats

- US president threatens to impose sanctions on Russia's oil sector if he believes Kremlin is not contributing to efforts to secure ceasefire in Ukraine
01.04.2025 Oil

Iraq agrees to supply Lebanon with fuel for 6 months

- Iraqi prime minister affirms his country’s support for Lebanon’s security, stability
01.04.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 2 for week ending March 28

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 22 compared to one year ago
29.03.2025 Oil

Oil set for weekly gains amid US tariff concerns

- Prices hold near one-month highs amid tightening global supply concerns following US tariffs
29.03.2025 Oil

Oil prices slip amid tariff worries, inflationary concerns

- Markets react to looming April 2nd start of Trump's proposed 25% tariff on Venezuelan oil and gas imports
28.03.2025 Oil

Türkiye's oil imports down 1.3% in January

- Crude oil imports fall by 2.4% to 2.36 million tons in January, latest data shows
29.03.2025 Oil

Oil down with Trump's tariff policies, Fed uncertainties

- Developments surrounding tariffs increase likelihood that US Fed's next interest rate cut may be delayed due to economic uncertainty
28.03.2025 Oil

US crude oil inventories down by 0.8% for week ending March 21

- Daily crude oil production reaches roughly 13.57 million barrels per day
27.03.2025 Oil

New Nigerian crude grade is set to hit market in April

- Latest addition to Nigeria's medium sweet crude grades, Obodo, is expected to cater primarily to European market
27.03.2025 Oil

Oil prices edge higher as supply concern grows, US crude inventories drop

- Latest developments on Russia-Ukraine truce talks and potential impact of tariffs on global trade limit further price increases
27.03.2025 Oil

Oil up over potential 'flexibility' in US reciprocal tariffs, ongoing Russia-Ukraine tension

- US President Donald Trump signals 'flexibility' on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2
26.03.2025 Oil

Oil down amid Black Sea ceasefire hopes, impending tariffs

- Fresh US sanctions on Iran raise supply concerns as its expected to tighten global oil markets and impact Middle Eastern oil trade
25.03.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 1 for week ending March 21

- Number of US oil rigs down by 23 compared to one year ago
24.03.2025 Oil

bp sells 25% of its stake in TANAP to Apollo

- Apollo Funds will invest about $1 billion for non-controlling shareholding in bp Pipelines
22.03.2025 Oil

Oil set for weekly gains amid Mideast tensions, US sanctions on Iran

- Expectations of stronger demand from China also provide upward momentum for prices
22.03.2025 Oil

Oil giants' profits decline 16% in 2024

- In total, companies' combined net profits drop from approximately $259.2 billion in 2023 to $217.65 billion last year
24.03.2025 Oil

Oil down over strong dollar, demand fears

- New US sanctions on Iran and OPEC+'s latest production cut plan limit further price drops
21.03.2025 Oil
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