Poll likely to re-legitimize Burundi’s Nkurunziza

TUNIS, Tunisia

If Burundi’s incumbent president, Pierre Nkurunziza, is reelected in Tuesday’s election, he looks set to regain some of the international legitimacy that he lost as a result of the violent demonstrations sparked by his decision -- first announced in April -- to seek a third term in office.

In May, several of the country’s top generals attempted -- but ultimately failed -- to lead a coup against the controversial president.

Vows by the coup leaders -- now in exile in Rwanda -- to continue to fight the Nkurunziza regime have made the situation in Burundi different from those seen in Burkina Faso (where President Blaise Compaore was ousted in 2014 after peaceful demonstrations) or in the Middle East (with its so-called “Arab Spring” uprisings that broke out in early 2011).

It is a frequent pattern in the East African sub-region, where unpopular regimes face exiled rebel groups that often enjoy the support of external forces.

Burundi’s coup leaders recently claimed responsibility for several grenade attacks that occurred in Bujumbura -- a city that only weeks ago was an epicenter of protest but which now appears more like a ghost-town.

And last Friday, the Burundian authorities also blamed the Rwanda-based opposition for an armed attack that occurred in the northern Kayanza province. 

These latest developments suggest that opposition to Nkurunziza is now being led largely by the exiled coup leaders -- violently -- and that the era of peaceful anti-Nkurunziza protest is over.

 Peaceful protest to violent rebellion

Nkurunziza, therefore, appears to have succeeded in replacing the image of unarmed Burundians protesting against his regime with one of exiled military leaders bent on destabilizing the country -- thereby securing the possibility of his reelection and a return to legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.

It will be difficult, therefore, for the exiled coup leaders to garner international sympathy, especially given that the country only emerged from a bloody civil war that left nearly 300,000 dead in its wake just a decade ago.

Following recent comments to a Kenyan television channel in which one of the coup leaders vowed to continue fighting the Nkurunziza regime, Nkurunziza spokesman Abayeho Gervais declared: “They [the coup leaders] want to plunge the country into civil war.”

Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Gervais added that Burundi was “on the path of peace and democracy; it doesn’t have to go back [to civil war]. Our country has experienced civil war in the past...  If they [the coup leaders] threaten to attack the country, security forces are standing firm.”

Rwanda, for its part, which is known for supporting rebel groups in the region (most notably Congo’s M23 organization), will not likely support Burundi’s exiled coup leaders for fear of drawing the ire of the UN, upon which it is highly dependent for aid.

Meanwhile, even though the international community has criticized Nkurunziza’s run for a third term in office -- which violates both the country’s constitution and the 1993 Arusha peace accords -- the Nkurunziza regime, according to many observers, nevertheless remains Burundi’s most viable option.

Notably, when Burundi’s failed coup came to light in mid-May, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the time condemned "any attempt to oust an elected government by force."

In Tuesday’s election, Nkurunziza will face two other candidates, both of whom hail from parties allied with his own. And in a move that will make the polls even more meaningless, the Burundian opposition on Saturday announced plans to boycott the vote.

This means Nkurunziza will likely be president for the next five years, granting him a renewed international legitimacy that he will no doubt bring to bear against his opponents on the other side of the border.