Shale oil production in the U.S. is estimated to jump by 67% from its current level through 2030, according to a report released by Norway-based independent energy research and consulting firm, Rystad Energy.
The U.S.' shale supply will peak at approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) around 2030, the report said, assuming a base-case price scenario where American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would average from $54 to $57 per barrel between 2019 and 2022.
The estimated output level for year 2030 is approximately 67% higher than the average monthly shale production of 8.7 mbpd that was recorded in August 2019 in the most prolific seven shale plays in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Rystad Energy said even if the price of WTI averages lower than the base-case scenario, such as around $45 per barrel, then light tight oil (LTO) supply in the U.S. would still peak at around a more modest pace of 11.5 mbpd -- 32% higher than its current level.
"The price factor is of course one of the deciding assumptions that defines our forecast for the U.S. LTO supply in the long-term," Sonia Mladá Passos, a product manager on Rystad Energy’s Shale Upstream Analytics team, said in the report.
"As reflected by our base-case price scenario, we expect the oil price to increase in the long-term," she added.
Shale oil has been produced in the U.S. since 2018 through various methods, such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Since then, the U.S.' crude oil production, including shale output, soared 150% from 5 mbpd in 2008 to a record high level of 12.5 mbpd for the week ending Aug. 23, the EIA data showed.
"U.S. LTO represented less than 1% of global oil supply just nine years ago. Today, U.S. LTO represents close to 10% of total global oil supply," according to the report.
The average 8.7 mbpd of monthly shale oil production in the U.S. is equal to approximately 8.6% of the world's oil supply, which according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Oil Market Report for September, stood at 100.7 mbpd in August 2019
By Ovunc Kutlu