Türkiye could increase electricity's share of final energy consumption from the current 22% to as much as 85% using existing technologies, according to a report published by energy think tank Ember on Tuesday.
The report describes Türkiye's target of raising electrification to 35% by 2035, announced as part of its preparations to host COP31, as an important step toward unlocking this potential.
The target offers an opportunity to extend the progress achieved in clean electricity generation over the past decade to buildings, transport and industry, the report said.
Türkiye's current electrification rate of 22% is close to the global and European Union averages of 23%.
While the country is ahead of the Middle East, at 20%, and Africa, at 12%, it lags behind Asia, where electrification has reached 28%, Ember said.
Electricity accounts for around 32% of energy consumption in buildings and 30% in industry, while its share in transport remains below 1%.
However, the report found that existing technologies could enable a shift to electricity for all energy consumption in buildings, 96% of transport-related energy consumption and 58% of industrial energy consumption.
Electric vehicles, heat pumps and electric industrial technologies can provide the same services using significantly less energy than fossil-fuel-based alternatives, the report said, adding that electrification would directly strengthen energy security by reducing energy imports.
- Türkiye needs to accelerate electrification tenfold over 11 years
Türkiye has made significant progress in clean electricity generation over the past decade, increasing the share of solar and wind power in electricity generation from 4.5% to 22%.
However, faster electrification is needed to extend these gains to energy consumption.
Türkiye's electrification rate increased by 1.3 percentage points over the past 11 years, meaning progress must be 10 times faster over the next 11 years to reach the 35% target by 2035, the report said.
The main reason for the slow pace of electrification is that much of the sevenfold increase in electricity demand since 1990 has stemmed from new energy needs rather than the replacement of fossil fuels.
As a result, fossil fuels have maintained a 70% share of final energy consumption for the past 34 years.
If current trends continue, Türkiye's electrification rate will reach only 24% by 2035, Ember said.
However, the country's target of tripling its installed solar and wind capacity, along with its 120-gigawatt rooftop solar potential, provides a strong basis for achieving the 35% electrification goal.
"Türkiye has made significant progress in renewable electricity generation in recent years and established a strong foundation for the clean electricity needed for electrification," said Bahadir Sercan Gumus, a senior energy analyst at Ember and author of the report.
"The 35% target is achievable, but this requires sector-specific measures to shift services currently provided by fossil fuels to electricity, alongside increasing clean electricity generation. For this success in generation to extend across the economy, electricity must replace fossil fuels in buildings, transport and industry," he said.
Because of the efficiency advantages of electric technologies, each one-percentage-point increase in Türkiye's national electrification rate is equivalent to adding 5.7 million electric cars or switching 2.5 million households from fossil-fuel heating to heat pumps, the report said.
Achieving the target will therefore require the transition to advance simultaneously across sectors and be translated into concrete sectoral road maps.
In buildings, switching residential heating to heat pumps stands out as one of the most significant measures, with the potential to increase the national electrification rate by 11 percentage points on its own.
By Basak Erkalan Koprubasili
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
